After another setback in midweek, Roma welcome in-form Inter Milan to Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, seeking to close a nine-point gap between the two Serie A giants.
A third league loss in their last five leaves the Giallorossi trailing in the champions' wake after they were defeated at Bologna, while Inter strode to a fifth win from six in the Italian top flight.
Match preview
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Having travelled to Emilia-Romagna hoping a worrisome few weeks were well behind them, Roma's attempts to secure a third successive Serie A win - and a fourth in all competitions - fell flat at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Wednesday.
Despite having nearly an hour to recover from Matthias Svanberg's first-half strike for hosts Bologna, the Giallorossi endured a frustrating night, which ultimately ended in a sixth league loss of the campaign. In all, that was the capital club's 12th away defeat in 2021: their worst calendar-year showing since 1950.
Following a late-autumn dip, Jose Mourinho's side had recently recorded clean sheets in wins over Genoa, Zorya Luhansk and Torino, which boosted their faltering prospects in both Serie A and the Europa Conference League.
However, they now welcome Inter with fresh doubts raised about Mourinho's methods, so the Portuguese tactician will be doubly keen to get one over on his old club this weekend.
As Roma are also set to face fellow top-four contenders Atalanta soon after a decisive Conference League trip to CSKA Sofia in the coming fortnight, improved performances are now essential, but will undoubtedly be harder to produce without captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, who was recently ruled out until 2022.
Pellegrini has embodied Mourinho's combative spirit on the field this term, but now others must take the fight to the Scudetto holders at Stadio Olimpico.
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Still closing in on the Serie A summit following some superb recent form, Inter's dreams of back-to-back Scudetti are moving closer to reality, as momentum builds towards the climax of the season's first half.
Now just a point behind city rivals Milan and two adrift of leaders Napoli, the Nerazzurri sealed an eighth win from 10 outings in midweek, with lowly Spezia providing their most recent victims.
A goal either side of the break - with Roberto Gagliardini and Lautaro Martinez both scoring at San Siro - scarcely reflected the dominance of Simone Inzaghi's rampant side, who fired in some 31 shots at the visitors' goal and had nearly two-thirds of the possession.
Nonetheless, Inter are sitting on the shoulders of the previously distant top two, with a number of favourable fixtures to come before the winter break - against Cagliari, Salernitana and Torino.
However, the Nerazzurri - whose only dropped points in the league since October have been draws with old rivals Juventus and Milan - must first enter the Olimpico, where Roma have generally ruled supreme throughout the last 12 months. Five wins from eight domestic away games so far, though, suggests that the champions will hardly fear their latest opponents.
A glamour tie with Real Madrid next awaits, in the Champions League, but with both clubs assured of progress to the last 16 - Inter for the first time since 2012 - Inzaghi's men can keep fully focused on this weekend's assignment in the capital.
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Team News
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Simone Inzaghi made some changes against limited opposition in midweek but is likely to revert to full strength upon his return to Stadio Olimpico, where he managed Lazio with such distinction for a number of years.
While Roberto Gagliardini is set to drop out of the Inter starting lineup, Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco should continue in the absence of others. Wing-back Matteo Darmian and central defender Andrea Ranocchia both suffered thigh injuries last week and are expected to be out until after Christmas, while Stefan de Vrij also remains on the sidelines due to a hamstring problem.
Up front, Edin Dzeko is in line to start ahead of Inzaghi favourite Joaquin Correa, and the Bosnian striker will face a noisy reception from the home fans having departed Rome for Milan during the summer.
Roma, meanwhile, will be without regular right wing-back Rick Karsdorp and centre-forward Tammy Abraham, who must both serve a suspension for accumulated bookings following yellow cards in Wednesday's defeat at Dall'Ara.
Though Bryan Cristante is available again and was involved in midweek, having recovered from COVID-19 infection, the Giallorossi have since seen both Felix Afena-Gyan and Gonzalo Villar go down with the virus.
Influential captain Lorenzo Pellegrini remains out of commission too, after suffering a thigh injury against Torino, so Jordan Veretout should continue to feature in a midfield also including Cristante and Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Ibanez, Mancini, Smalling, Vina; Veretout, Cristante, Perez; Mkhitaryan, Zaniolo; Shomurodov
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; D'Ambrosio, Bastoni, Skriniar; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Perisic; Martinez, Dzeko
We say: Roma 1-2 Inter Milan
Inter's greatest foes Milan last punctured Roma's excellent home record in Serie A, and the impressive Nerazzurri can make it a double triumph for the second city on Saturday.
Inzaghi has certainly put his own stamp on things in the champions' dugout, and the deeper, more harmonious squad at his disposal will help him overcome Mourinho's men in a tightly-fought capital skirmish.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Roma had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Roma win was 2-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
