Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 57.32%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Genoa |
57.32% ( -0.7) | 23.12% ( 0.44) | 19.56% ( 0.27) |
Both teams to score 50.62% ( -0.92) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.17% ( -1.45) | 48.83% ( 1.45) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.07% ( -1.33) | 70.93% ( 1.33) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.21% ( -0.76) | 16.79% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.25% ( -1.36) | 46.75% ( 1.36) |
Genoa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.83% ( -0.55) | 39.16% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.12% ( -0.52) | 75.88% ( 0.52) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Genoa |
1-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.23% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.98% Total : 57.31% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.95% Total : 23.12% | 0-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.4% Total : 19.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 26 |
2 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 25 |
3 | Fiorentina | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
4 | Inter Milan | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 25 |
5 | Lazio | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
6 | Juventus | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
7 | AC Milan | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
8 | Bologna | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 18 |
9 | Udinese | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 16 |
10 | Empoli | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 15 |
11 | Torino | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
12 | Roma | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
13 | Parma | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
15 | Como | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
17 | Genoa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 10 |
18 | Lecce | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 9 |
19 | Monza | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
> Serie A Full Table |