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Serie A
Lazio logo
Serie A | Gameweek 27
Mar 19, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma logo

Lazio
1 - 0
Roma

Zaccagni (65')
Alberto (25'), Romagnoli (59'), Cancellieri (89'), Basic (90+2')
Marusic (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ibanez (8'), Cristante (71'), Mancini (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Rome Derby between Lazio and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AZ 2-1 Lazio
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-0 Roma
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Lazio 1-0 Roma

 Both coaches have cited concerns about fatigue following their European exploits, but the two teams have had a similar workload in that regard. It may, therefore, be a cautious encounter decided by a single goal, and Lazio's ability to keep the back door shut could tip the balance in their favour. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.

Result
LazioDrawRoma
45.25% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 27.32% (0.094999999999999 0.09) 27.43% (-0.12 -0.12)
Both teams to score 47.04% (-0.343 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.09% (-0.401 -0.4)57.91% (0.40199999999999 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.39% (-0.316 -0.32)78.62% (0.31699999999999 0.32)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.48% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)25.52% (0.169 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.63% (-0.232 -0.23)60.37% (0.234 0.23)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.16% (-0.316 -0.32)36.84% (0.317 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.37% (-0.319 -0.32)73.63% (0.32000000000001 0.32)
Score Analysis
    Lazio 45.25%
    Roma 27.43%
    Draw 27.31%
LazioDrawRoma
1-0 @ 12.84% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 8.77% (0.049000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.76% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.99% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-1 @ 3.99% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.99% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.36% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.36% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 45.25%
1-1 @ 12.82% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 9.4% (0.142 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.37% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 27.31%
0-1 @ 9.39% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
1-2 @ 6.4% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.13% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.56% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.46% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 27.43%

How you voted: Lazio vs Roma

Lazio
53.1%
Draw
23.9%
Roma
23.0%
113
Head to Head
Nov 6, 2022 5pm
Roma
0-1
Lazio

Mancini (8')
Anderson (29')
Mar 20, 2022 5pm
Roma
3-0
Lazio
Abraham (1', 22'), Pellegrini (40')
Karsdorp (48'), Mancini (53'), Zalewski (73'), Oliveira (78')

Pedro (43'), Patric (44'), Leiva (61')
Sep 26, 2021 5pm
Lazio
3-2
Roma
Milinkovic-Savic (10'), Pedro (19'), Anderson (63')
Leiva (25'), Cataldi (87')
Ibanez (41'), Veretout (69' pen.)
Patricio (11'), Cristante (45+2'), Vina (48'), Mourinho (61'), Veretout (87')
May 15, 2021 7.45pm
Roma
2-0
Lazio
Mkhitaryan (42'), Pedro (78')
Peres (16'), Santon (47')

Acerbi (23')
Acerbi (87')
Jan 15, 2021 7.45pm
Lazio
3-0
Roma
Immobile (14'), Alberto (23', 67')
Milinkovic-Savic (11'), Radu (20'), Acerbi (45+3'), Felipe (62'), Leiva (63')

Mancini (34'), Smalling (60'), Pedro (71'), Mkhitaryan (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
2Napoli16112324111335
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna156722118325
8AC Milan156542416823
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa163761324-1116
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1650112139-1815
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410
> Serie A Full Table


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