Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 15

Dec 10, 2023 at 2pm UK

U-Power Stadium

Monza
1 - 0
Genoa

Mota (83')
Kiriakopoulos (65')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Vasquez (34'), Frendrup (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Monza and Genoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Monza

All competitions

Last Game: Monza 1-2 Juventus
Friday, December 1 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Genoa

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Genoa
Tuesday, December 5 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Both sides average around one goal per game, so it may be a tight contest, with Monza capitalising on home advantage and their visitors' weakness when on the road. The hosts have also had more than a week to prepare, while Genoa undertook a midweek Coppa Italia trip down to Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 53.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 22.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Monza in this match.

Result
Monza	Draw	Genoa
53.05% ( 0.43)	24.65% ( 0.03)	22.29% ( -0.46)

Both teams to score 49.89% (

-0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.21% (

-0.58)

51.78% (

0.58)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.45% (

-0.51)

73.55% (

0.51)

Monza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.52% (

-0.05)

19.48% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.66% (

-0.09)

51.34% (

0.09)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.96% (

-0.77)

38.04% (

0.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.19% (

-0.75)

74.81% (

0.75)

Score Analysis

Monza 53.05%

Genoa 22.29%

Draw 24.65%

Monza	Draw	Genoa
1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.9% Total : 53.05%	1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.65%	0-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.58% Total : 22.29%