There may only be two places separating these two sides in the Super Lig table, but the feeling around the clubs is very different. Gala are in flying form, whereas Besiktas are going through a tumultuous period on and off the pitch.
The visitors should be boosted by their fans being allowed to attend after a ban on away supporters in Istanbul derbies was lifted ahead of this game, but the prospect of those supporters celebrating victory appears to be bleak.
Besiktas have the firepower to be dangerous, but they have also conceded nine goals in eight games so far this season and, against a Galatasaray side on such a good run, that could be the difference.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 53.46%. A win for Besiktas had a probability of 24.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Besiktas win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Galatasaray in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Galatasaray.
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