The first 2023 Under-20 World Cup last-16 clash takes place at the Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza on Tuesday evening as the USA Under-20s tackle New Zealand Under-20s.
The Yanks progressed as Group B winners with a 100% record of three wins from three games, while the Junior All Whites progressed as one of the best third-placed teams.
Match preview
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Despite enduring a dissatisfactory build-up to the tournament with three winless friendly games in March, perfection was the name of the game for the USA during the group stage, where Mikey Varas's side topped their section without dropping a point or conceding a goal.
Ecuador, Fiji and Slovakia all fell to the Yanks' superiority in Group B, which ended with Cade Cowell and Niko Tsakiris netting either side of the half-time whistle in a 2-0 win over the latter on Friday, and the resilient USA hold the esteemed honour of being the only team to keep three clean sheets in their three group games.
In the wake of their near-flawless exploits in Group B, optimism is rife within the Stars and Stripes faithful that their side can enjoy a deep run into the tournament and end their recent quarter-final hoodoo, as the USA have been eliminated in the last eight in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 editions.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Varas's men will be present in the quarters, but not since 2005 have the Yanks been eliminated at the last-16 stage, and a fourth-placed finish in 1989 remains their best-ever finish at the Under-20 World Cup.
In contrast, New Zealand's path to the knockout rounds was far less straightforward, as Darren Bazeley's team took just four points on offer from their three games in Group A against Argentina, Uzbekistan and Guatemala to finish outside the top two.
Following a slender 1-0 success over Guatemala and 2-2 draw with Uzbekistan, New Zealand were taught a footballing lesson in a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of the Argentinians, seeing them finish behind Uzbekistan on goal difference and leaving them praying that their points tally would be enough to finish as one of the four best third-placed teams, which it was.
As a result, the Junior All Whites will be competing in the knockout stages of the Under-20 World Cup for the fourth time in a row this week, but they were swiftly eliminated from the last 16 in 2015 - when they hosted the tournament - 2017 and 2019, and a first-ever quarter-final appearance still eludes them.
The USA were New Zealand's opponents during the 2017 last 16, and the merciless Yanks demolished their AFC counterparts in a 6-0 win, two years on from an equally dominant 4-0 romping during the 2015 group stage, and Bazeley must hope that the third time is the charm for his charges.
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Team News
As well as posting a convincing win over Slovakia, the USA did not sustain any injury concerns or even a single yellow card in that matchday three success, leaving Varas with a full complement of players to choose from here.
The Yanks boss unsurprisingly made several changes from the side that strolled past whipping boys Fiji on Friday, and the majority of those starters ought to hold their places here, as Chelsea's Gabriel Slonina acts as the last line of defence.
Tsakiris's goal off the bench last time out may give Varas some food for thought in the middle, but Jack McGlynn is a more likely candidate to force his way back into the engine room alongside Obed Vargas and skipper Daniel Edelman.
Meanwhile, New Zealand were handed an injury boost prior to their 5-0 defeat to Argentina, as attacker Jay Herdman was fit enough to come on as a second-half substitute after coming off injured in their previous draw with Uzbekistan.
The 18-year-old could now challenge Noah Karunaratne for a start on the left wing, and Bazeley has no other injury or disciplinary worries for their opening knockout battle, but a change in shape to a 4-2-3-1 may be in order after the 3-4-3 backfired horribly last time out.
USA Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Che, Wynder, Craig, Gomez; McGlynn, Edelman, Vargas; Wolff, Luna, Cowell
New Zealand Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Sims; O'Leary, Surman, Hughes, Linder; Conchie, McKay; Wallace, Herdman, Garbett; Colloty
We say: USA Under-20s 2-0 New Zealand Under-20s
Demonstrating excellent defensive nous in the group stage, the USA will be firm favourites to get the job done over an unspectacular New Zealand side and may be licking their lips at the prospect of a few goals after watching Argentina's performance against the Junior All Whites.
The Yanks should not score at a similar rate to their South American counterparts, but we still expect Varas's side to encounter few roadblocks en route to the quarter-finals.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Under-20s win with a probability of 80.1%. A draw had a probability of 13.2% and a win for New Zealand Under-20s had a probability of 6.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Under-20s win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.43%) and 1-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.27%), while for a New Zealand Under-20s win it was 0-1 (2.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA Under-20s would win this match.
