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[monks data]
Weymouth
National League | Gameweek 38
Apr 26, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Bob Lucas Stadium
Wrexham AFC

Weymouth
1 - 6
Wrexham

Bearwish (20')
Buse (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Davies (47', 64'), Mullin (49', 83'), Jones (54'), Palmer (84')

Preview: Weymouth vs. Wrexham - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's National League clash between Weymouth and Wrexham, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides at opposite ends of the National League table will square off on Tuesday, as second-placed Wrexham make the trip to Weymouth.

The visitors' automatic promotion hopes took a major hit with a defeat at the weekend, while the home team's relegation could be confirmed on Tuesday if results do not go their way.


Match preview

Phil Parkinson, now in charge of Wrexham, pictured in January 2020© Reuters

Weymouth have had to endure a dismal season in the fifth tier of English football, and they have been cut adrift at the bottom end of the division as a result of an 11-game winless run.

In that spell, David Oldfield's team have collected just three points, two of which came from goalless draws with Grimsby Town and Yeovil Town in April.

After the latter, the Terras travelled to take on Notts County last time out, and they left empty-handed as Tom Bearwish's goal was not enough to trigger a turnaround after their hosts had gone 3-0 up.

As a result, Weymouth now sit 13 points adrift of safety with just five games to play, meaning a defeat on Tuesday would seal their fate.

They take on a Wrexham side keen to remain in the fight for top spot in the final straight of the season.

Under the management of Phil Parkinson, the Welsh outfit enjoyed an eye-catching run of form between late February and mid-April, going unbeaten for a span of 12 league outings to climb into the race for automatic promotion.

The Dragons were able to win 10 of those games, taking their tally to 78 points from 38 league outings following the recent 4-0 thrashing of Altrincham thanks to Paul Mullin's brace and goals from Jordan Davies and Ollie Palmer.

However, their unbeaten run was brought to an abrupt end on Saturday, as, after leading Woking 1-0 through an own goal, the hosts turned the tide in the second half, with Jamar Loza eventually hitting an 86th-minute winner to send Parkinson's men home empty-handed.

While league leaders Stockport County also lost last time out, that defeat leaves Wrexham with just five games to bridge the seven-point gap to the only automatic promotion spot, or they will have to settle for a position in the playoffs, making it crucial that they finish the campaign with a run of wins.

Weymouth National League form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L

Wrexham National League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L



Team News

Weymouth attacker Brandon Goodship has missed the last two matches, and he could remain on the sidelines for Tuesday's game.

As a result, plenty of responsibility will continue to fall on captain Josh McQuoid, who has hit six goals in the National League this term.

Wrexham boast a squad full of quality, and Parkinson has the likes of Liam McAlinden and Jordan Ponticelli to call on from the bench if he opts to make changes following Saturday's defeat.

Their line will be led by star man Paul Mullin, who has hit 21 league goals this term following his move from Cambridge United, who he fired to promotion to the third tier last season.

He could be joined by Ollie Palmer, who signed from AFC Wimbledon in January, netting 11 goals in 15 appearances since his move after departing as the Dons' top scorer at the halfway point of the season.

Weymouth possible starting lineup:
Fitzsimons; Drewe, Morgan, Cordner, Greenwood; Buse, Robinson; McQuoid, Blair; Ash, Bearwish

Wrexham possible starting lineup:
Dibble; Hall-Johnson, Cleworth, Tozer, McFadzean; Jones, Young, Davies; McAlinden; Palmer, Mullin


SM words green background

We say: Weymouth 0-3 Wrexham

Wrexham have been a force to be reckoned with in recent months, and, even despite suffering a defeat last time out, they have the quality to cruise past the strugglers on Tuesday.

The hosts are fighting for their lives, but any resurgence would now be too late, and we do not see them defying the odds against the formidable travellers.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



ID:484147:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect7738:
Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 60.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Weymouth had a probability of 17.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.61%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Weymouth win it was 1-0 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Weymouth vs Wrexham

Weymouth
17.6%
Draw
29.4%
Wrexham
52.9%
17
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