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World Cup
Argentina national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
Paraguay national football team

Argentina
1 - 0
Paraguay

Otamendi (3')
Fernandez (7')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Alonso (21'), Bareiro (50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Argentina and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Argentina could line up for Friday's CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier against Paraguay.

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Paraguay

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Paraguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Argentina 3-0 Paraguay

 All eyes will be on whether Lionel Messi is passed fit to feature on Friday, but even if the 36-year-old is not involved, Argentina will be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top. Paraguay have frustrated Argentina over the years, but we believe that the world champions have enough quality in their side to pick up maximum points against a goal-shy Albirroja outfit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 85.6%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 3.45%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.96%) and 1-0 (12.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.84%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (1.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.

Result
ArgentinaDrawParaguay
85.6% (-0.73099999999999 -0.73) 10.95% (0.521 0.52) 3.45% (0.2069 0.21)
Both teams to score 29.65% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.86% (-1.297 -1.3)41.14% (1.292 1.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.46% (-1.33 -1.33)63.54% (1.327 1.33)
Argentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.07% (-0.42200000000001 -0.42)6.93% (0.418 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.57% (-1.134 -1.13)25.42% (1.129 1.13)
Paraguay Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
31.86% (0.206 0.21)68.14% (-0.21000000000001 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
5.72% (0.076899999999999 0.08)94.28% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Argentina 85.58%
    Paraguay 3.45%
    Draw 10.95%
ArgentinaDrawParaguay
2-0 @ 16.82% (0.22 0.22)
3-0 @ 14.96% (-0.16 -0.16)
1-0 @ 12.6% (0.45 0.45)
4-0 @ 9.99% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-1 @ 6.45% (0.135 0.14)
3-1 @ 5.74% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-0 @ 5.33% (-0.309 -0.31)
4-1 @ 3.83% (-0.097 -0.1)
6-0 @ 2.37% (-0.196 -0.2)
5-1 @ 2.05% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 1.1% (0.006 0.01)
6-1 @ 0.91% (-0.067 -0.07)
7-0 @ 0.91% (-0.097 -0.1)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 85.58%
1-1 @ 4.84% (0.21 0.21)
0-0 @ 4.72% (0.272 0.27)
2-2 @ 1.24% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 10.95%
0-1 @ 1.81% (0.118 0.12)
1-2 @ 0.93% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 3.45%

How you voted: Argentina vs Paraguay

Argentina
93.0%
Draw
5.3%
Paraguay
1.8%
57
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2021 12am
Group Stage
Paraguay
0-0
Argentina
Villasanti (21'), Alonso (65')
> Preview
Jun 22, 2021 1am
Group Stage
Argentina
1-0
Paraguay
> Preview
Nov 13, 2020 12am
Group Stage
Argentina
1-1
Paraguay
De Paul (45'), Montiel (78')
Romero (30'), Cardozo (47'), Perez (76'), Almiron (90+1')
> Preview
Jun 20, 2019 1.30am
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Paraguay
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Semi-Finals
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6-1
Paraguay
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Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!