Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 36.86%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
34.97% ( -0.02) | 28.17% ( 0) | 36.86% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 47.26% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.1% ( -0.02) | 58.89% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.61% ( -0.01) | 79.39% ( 0.01) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.15% ( -0.02) | 31.85% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.71% ( -0.02) | 68.28% ( 0.02) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.35% | 30.65% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.1% ( 0) | 66.89% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
1-0 @ 11.16% 2-1 @ 7.56% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.39% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.88% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.44% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0) Other @ 2.83% Total : 34.96% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.16% | 0-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.83% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.08% 0-3 @ 2.69% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.24% Total : 36.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |