Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Nacional |
44.3% ( 1.04) | 26.64% ( 0.27) | 29.06% ( -1.31) |
Both teams to score 49.98% ( -1.49) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.39% ( -1.6) | 54.61% ( 1.6) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.05% ( -1.34) | 75.95% ( 1.34) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.48% ( -0.19) | 24.52% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.02% ( -0.27) | 58.98% ( 0.27) |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.22% ( -1.8) | 33.79% ( 1.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.55% ( -2) | 70.45% ( 2) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Nacional |
1-0 @ 11.64% ( 0.65) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.41) 3-1 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.52% Total : 44.3% | 1-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.5) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.63% | 0-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.18) Other @ 2.35% Total : 29.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 33 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 28 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
5 | Braga | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
10 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 13 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
14 | AVS | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
15 | Nacional | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 8 |
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