Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 26

Mar 17, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
2 - 3
B. Leverkusen

Doan (10'), Keitel (79')
Hofler (72')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Wirtz (2'), Hlozek (40'), Schick (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: West Ham 5-0 Freiburg
Thursday, March 14 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 3-2 Qarabag
Thursday, March 14 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Freiburg 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen

Both teams could be slightly tired having been involved in Europa League action on Thursday evening, but there is little doubt that Leverkusen enjoyed an easier time of things having swatted Qarabag aside on their home turf. Freiburg rarely lose at home under Streich, but Leverkusen have not lost in any competition all season, and we can envisage them narrowly restoring their healthy cushion at the summit with another victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 0-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
18.93% ( -1.38)	20.87% ( -0.6)	60.2% ( 1.98)

Both teams to score 56.99% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.16% (

0.69)

39.84% (

-0.69)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.8% (

0.71)

62.19% (

-0.71)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.4% (

-1)

34.6% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.68% (

-1.08)

71.32% (

1.08)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.14% (

0.81)

12.85% (

-0.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.77% (

1.64)

39.22% (

-1.64)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 18.93%

Bayer Leverkusen 60.2%

Draw 20.87%

Freiburg	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.3) 1-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.23) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.88% Total : 18.93%	1-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.87%	1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.27) 0-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.79% ( 0.21) 0-3 @ 6.4% ( 0.37) 2-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.48% ( 0.21) 0-4 @ 3.28% ( 0.28) 2-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.43% ( 0.13) 0-5 @ 1.35% ( 0.15) Other @ 3.6% Total : 60.2%