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Bundesliga | Gameweek 26
Mar 17, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Leverkusen logo

Freiburg
2 - 3
B. Leverkusen

Doan (10'), Keitel (79')
Hofler (72')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Wirtz (2'), Hlozek (40'), Schick (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: West Ham 5-0 Freiburg
Thursday, March 14 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 3-2 Qarabag
Thursday, March 14 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Freiburg 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen

 Both teams could be slightly tired having been involved in Europa League action on Thursday evening, but there is little doubt that Leverkusen enjoyed an easier time of things having swatted Qarabag aside on their home turf. Freiburg rarely lose at home under Streich, but Leverkusen have not lost in any competition all season, and we can envisage them narrowly restoring their healthy cushion at the summit with another victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 0-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawBayer Leverkusen
18.93% (-1.384 -1.38) 20.87% (-0.598 -0.6) 60.2% (1.98 1.98)
Both teams to score 56.99% (-0.33300000000001 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.16% (0.69 0.69)39.84% (-0.689 -0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.8% (0.71299999999999 0.71)62.19% (-0.71299999999999 -0.71)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.4% (-1.001 -1)34.6% (1.001 1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.68% (-1.076 -1.08)71.32% (1.077 1.08)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.14% (0.81100000000001 0.81)12.85% (-0.812 -0.81)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.77% (1.64 1.64)39.22% (-1.641 -1.64)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 18.93%
    Bayer Leverkusen 60.2%
    Draw 20.87%
FreiburgDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 5.14% (-0.297 -0.3)
1-0 @ 4.72% (-0.287 -0.29)
2-0 @ 2.51% (-0.226 -0.23)
3-2 @ 1.87% (-0.102 -0.1)
3-1 @ 1.82% (-0.158 -0.16)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 18.93%
1-1 @ 9.68% (-0.283 -0.28)
2-2 @ 5.27% (-0.138 -0.14)
0-0 @ 4.45% (-0.144 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1.28% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 20.87%
1-2 @ 9.93% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.36% (0.265 0.27)
0-1 @ 9.12% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 6.79% (0.211 0.21)
0-3 @ 6.4% (0.366 0.37)
2-3 @ 3.61% (0.016 0.02)
1-4 @ 3.48% (0.21 0.21)
0-4 @ 3.28% (0.28 0.28)
2-4 @ 1.85% (0.063 0.06)
1-5 @ 1.43% (0.126 0.13)
0-5 @ 1.35% (0.152 0.15)
Other @ 3.6%
Total : 60.2%

How you voted: Freiburg vs B. Leverkusen

Freiburg
8.2%
Draw
10.2%
Bayer Leverkusen
81.6%
98
Head to Head
Oct 29, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 9
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Freiburg
Wirtz (36'), Hofmann (60')
Gulde (70')
Kubler (14'), Streich (90+3'), Holer (90+4')
> Preview
Feb 26, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 22
Freiburg
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Grifo (29')
Azmoun (67')
> Preview
Sep 3, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 5
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Freiburg
Demirbay (16'), Schick (65')
Tah (5'), Amiri (82')
Ginter (48'), Gregoritsch (51'), Doan (72')
Hofler (34'), Gregoritsch (53')
> Preview
May 14, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Freiburg
Alario (54'), Palacios (90+7')
Diaby (18'), Baumgartlinger (26')
Haberer (88')
Eggestein (3'), Schlotterbeck (43'), Sildillia (77')
> Preview
Dec 19, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 17
Freiburg
2-1
B. Leverkusen
Grifo (33' pen.), Schade (84')
Schlotterbeck (30'), Holer (86')
Aranguiz (45+1')
Frimpong (32'), Andrich (39'), Odilon (82')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226
> Bundesliga Full Table


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