Two sides made to battle for Serie A salvation despite loftier expectations meet on Saturday, as Cagliari celebrate safety by welcoming Genoa to the Sardegna Arena.
While the visitors' much-improved second half of the season ultimately kept them afloat, their final-day hosts only secured top-flight survival last weekend.
Match preview
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Having already seen their continued presence in Serie A confirmed by the failures of Benevento and Torino last weekend, Cagliari were able to play without pressure as they held top-four contenders Milan to a goalless draw at San Siro.
That result took their unbeaten run to seven games in all - starting with a miraculous comeback versus Parma last month - in a spell during which they have gleaned 15 points from a possible 21. Along with high-flyers Napoli and Atalanta, Leonardo Semplici's men are one of only three teams to go without defeat in that period.
With a win on Saturday, then, the Isolani could even leapfrog mid-table opponents Genoa to finish on 40 points and give a little gloss to their otherwise disappointing campaign.
Precedent is certainly in the Sardinians' favour, as Cagliari have won six of their last eight home games against the Ligurian side - making them the team against which they have picked up the most home wins in Serie A since 2012.
However, after a brief but vital flurry in the preceding weeks, Cagliari have returned to their previously goal-shy ways in the past fortnight - having drawn their last two league games without scoring - so will hope for one final flourish from 16-goal top scorer and captain Joao Pedro to help them finish on a high.
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Genoa coach Davide Ballardini returns two his two-time former employers this weekend, having fulfilled his current club's mid-season goal of avoiding the drop.
The Grifone ultimately ensured their Serie A survival with success in Bologna just over a week ago, but had looked likely to retain their place in the elite for quite some time, thanks to their revival under the well-travelled tactician.
In his fourth turn as Genoa boss - having taken the reins again last December - Ballardini has proved a success, breathing fresh life into a squad that looked doomed under predecessor Rolando Maran.
An eventful 4-3 defeat at home to Atalanta last time out - with a much-changed and injury-affected starting XI - may have ended the Rossoblu's faint hopes of a top-half finish, but they could possibly conclude their campaign in 12th place with a win at the Sardegna Arena.
Journeying south in the knowledge that they have won both of their last two encounters with Cagliari by the same 1-0 scoreline should give Genoa added confidence ahead of the game, particularly with forwards Eldor Shomurodov and Goran Pandev running into form at the end of a long season - with the former hitting the net four times in his last five appearances.
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Team News
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With survival secured, Leonardo Semplici could be tempted to make changes to his starting lineup on the final day of the season, with defensive pair Daniele Rugani and Ragnar Klavan in contention for a place in Cagliari's probable back three. The participation of Sebastian Walukiewicz (back) and Arturo Calabresi (thigh), however, remains in doubt.
Meanwhile, in-demand midfielder Nahitan Nandez should again feature on the right flank, while veteran Kwadwo Asamoah will be hoping to pip current incumbent Charalampos Lykogiannis to start on the opposite side.
In the centre, Razvan Marin, Alfred Duncan and Alessandro Deiola are competing for two places behind Radja Nainggolan, who once more supports Leonardo Pavoletti and Joao Pedro up front.
Visitors Genoa may still have Domenico Criscito, Luca Pellegrini and Lennart Czyborra all sidelined due to injury this weekend, while Davide Biraschi recently saw his season ended due to a groin tear. Therefore, experienced centre-back Cristian Zapata will be considered for a rare start, though Jerome Onguene was given the nod last time out.
Davide Ballardini has several available options up front, though, as Marko Pjaca and Eldor Shomurodov started versus Atalanta and leading goalscorer Mattia Destro awaits a chance to embellish his final tally. Goran Pandev may even be handed a place in the XI, but targetman Gianluca Scamacca is set to be out injured once again.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Ceppitelli, Godin, Rugani; Nandez, Marin, Duncan, Lykogiannis; Nainggolan; Joao Pedro, Pavoletti
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Goldaniga, Zapata, Masiello; Ghiglione, Zajc, Rovella, Strootman, Zappacosta; Shomurodov, Destro
We say: Cagliari 2-1 Genoa
Cagliari can sneak ahead of their visitors in the final standings by extending their unbeaten run to an eighth game, as with the pressure off, they can demonstrate the best of a talented squad.
As Genoa's injury woes have destabilised their defence, even a toiling Isolani attack can take advantage and reach the magical 40 points mark.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 43.62%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
