Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 19, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 1
Atletico

Provedel (90+5')
Sarri (36'), Patric (83'), Immobile (84')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Barrios (29')
Simeone (21'), Griezmann (26'), Lino (67'), Correa (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lazio and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Last Game: Juventus 3-1 Lazio
Saturday, September 16 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Last Game: Valencia 3-0 Atletico
Saturday, September 16 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Lazio 1-2 Atletico Madrid

Both teams have suffered tough defeats following the international period, so confidence will not be sky-high in either camp. Lazio's sluggish start to the new season has come as something of a surprise, but their defensive instability could see Atletico sneak a valuable first-day away win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 29.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Atletico Madrid
42.64% ( -0.21)	27.62% ( 0.04)	29.74% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 47.49% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.03% (

-0.1)

57.97% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.33% (

-0.08)

78.66% (

0.08)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.11% (

-0.16)

26.89% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.79% (

-0.21)

62.21% (

0.2)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.95% (

0.07)

35.05% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.21% (

0.07)

71.79% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Lazio 42.63%

Atletico Madrid 29.74%

Draw 27.61%

Lazio	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 12.37% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.97% Total : 42.63%	1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.61%	0-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0) Other @ 2.13% Total : 29.74%