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[monks data]
Canada national football team
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Mar 27, 2022 at 9.05pm UK
BMO Field
Jamaica national football team

Canada
4 - 0
Jamaica

Larin (13'), Buchanan (44'), Hoilett (83'), Mariappa (88' og.)
FT(HT: 2-0)

Brown (43')

Preview: Canada vs. Jamaica - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Canada and Jamaica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Canada need just a single point against Jamaica on Sunday to clinch their spot in World Cup 2022 this November, as the two CONCACAF sides square off at BMO Field in Toronto.

The Canucks saw their 17-match unbeaten run in World Cup qualifying come to an end on Thursday, dropping a 1-0 decision to Costa Rica, while The Reggae Boyz came back to draw El Salvador 1-1.


Match preview

Canada's Mark-Anthony Kaye is shown a red card by referee Said Martinez on March 25, 2022© Reuters

The Canadian champagne remains on ice for the time being, as they failed to find a way through a desperate Costa Rican defence, determined to maintain their advantage at all costs.

Despite the setback, there were still plenty of positives for coach John Herdman to take away from their performance, as they pressed Los Ticos relentlessly for an equaliser in the second half, but in the end, it came down to a matter of inches and a few bounces which did not go their way.

Les Rouges will fancy their chances of officially qualifying for the finals for the second time in their history when they take on a Jamaican side who have never beaten them on Canadian soil.

Defending set-pieces has been a bit of a worry for this team, as their defence seemed a little slow in their marking on Thursday, while they lost their share of aerial duels.

Their breakaway speed in transition has been one of the most vital aspects of their game, as they have a plethora of talented individuals with the skill and pace to burn opposing sides and create their share of opportunities.

They have had a bend but don't break approach to defending throughout the qualifying campaign, often sustaining a lot of early pressure before settling into their game and picking their spots to counter.

While a draw is all Canada need to make it to Qatar, Herdman and his team have never been satisfied with the bare minimum, and they will be eager to win their final two games.

Doing so would not only earn them a tournament berth, but it would likely to give The Canucks a more favourable draw for the finals come November.

Jamaica coach Paul Hall on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Jamaica may be out of contention for Qatar, but their interim boss Paul Hall saw many things that he liked from his players in their 1-1 draw against El Salvador.

The Manchester-born manager, who is also currently serving as the lead coach for the Queens Park Rangers U-23 squad, asked his team to show some style on Thursday, and we saw plenty of creativity from this group over 90 minutes.

They are physically stronger than most sides in this region, with a ton of speed and stamina that, with the right touches and skill, can cause problems for the opposition.

When they play a free-flowing style as we saw against the Salvadorans, this is a group capable of competing and defeating the strongest sides in this region, which has to be a bit disappointing knowing that they will have to wait four years for another shot to qualify.

When you look at this squad, there is quality and talent all over the field, but perhaps they lack a clear identity on how they should be playing each game tactically.

Five of their eight points in the Octagon have come away from home, which should give them a little bit of confidence coming to Canada, a place that has not been kind to them through the years.

Even though a spot in Qatar was their primary objective, if Jamaica can claim at least one point from their last two qualifiers, they would finish with the most points in the final qualification phase, since their only World Cup appearance in 1998.

Canada World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Jamaica World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D

Jamaica form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Canada head coach John Herdman celebrates a win over the United States during a CONCACAF FIFA World Cup Qualifier soccer match at Tim Hortons Field on January 30, 2022© Reuters

Milan Borjan conceded his first goal for Canada since November 16, while Tajon Buchanan came close to levelling their match against Los Ticos in the second half when his header glanced off the crossbar.

Alphonso Davies remains out with myocarditis, Samuel Piette and David Wotherspoon have an ankle and ACL injury respectively, and Mark-Anthony Kaye will not be available after being sent off in the opening half on Thursday.

Ismael Kone had a strong debut, coming on as a late substitute, completing 11 of his passes and gracefully breaking through the Costa Rican lines, while captain Atiba Hutchinson did a commendable job on defence, completing 89 of his 93 passes to go along with nine recoveries, three tackles and one interception.

Junior Hoilett needs three more goals to move into a tie with Alex Bunbury, Lucas Cavallini and Tosaint Ricketts for sixth all-time in Canadian history, while Richie Laryea was a threat down the wing throughout their match on Thursday, despite playing in his first competitive match for club or country since February.

This week, Andre Gray scored his third international goal for the Reggae Boyz, playing alongside 24-year-old Daniel Green, who picked up his second international cap for the Jamaicans.

Atapharoy Bygrave made his first international appearance on Thursday, replacing Green with fewer than 20 minutes to play, while Ramone Howell collected his second cap, coming on as a second-half substitute in place of Devon Williams.

Andre Blake stopped two of the three El Salvador shots that he faced as some solid defensive work from Richard King, Adrian Mariappa and Damion Lowe made life a little easier for the Philadelphia Union keeper.

Jamaica have two players on their roster who feature for Canadian clubs, with Javain Brown applying his trade in MLS for the Vancouver Whitecaps, while Alex Marshall features in the Canadian Premier League with the Halifax Wanderers.

Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Laryea, Vitoria, Miller, Johnston; Hoilett, Eustaquio, Fraser, Buchanan; Larin, Kone

Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Thomas, Mariappa, Lowe, Brown; Pearson, Williams, Walker, Howell; Gray, Marshall


SM words green background

We say: Canada 2-0 Jamaica

The Jamaicans should be able to contain the Canadians speed, but as fast as they are, their technical ability is not on the same level as Canada.

Les Rouges were unlucky to come away empty-handed versus Los Ticos, though they have never lost consecutive matches since Herdman took over.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Jamaica had a probability of 14.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.35%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Jamaica win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Canada vs Jamaica

Canada
81.8%
Draw
11.1%
Jamaica
7.1%
99
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Canada's Cyle Larin celebrates scoring their first goal on January 30, 2022
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