Canada can book a place at the 2024 Copa America next year if they can avoid defeat on Tuesday at BMO Field when they host Jamaica in the second leg of that CONCACAF Nations League quarter-final tie.
A late goal in each half of the opening encounter in Kingston over the weekend powered the Canucks to a 2-1 victory, putting them within reach of a second successive semi-final appearance in this competition.
Match preview
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The delay of their opening leg did not deter the Canadians on Saturday as Mauro Biello collected his first victory as interim boss.
That was the first away victory for Les Rouges in Jamaica since 1988, though Canada are now a perfect 3-0 against Caribbean nations in this competition.
Biello picked an experienced side for this tie, and that seemed to carry them through this past weekend as they showed character to fight back after conceding a controversial equaliser, scoring beyond the 85th minute for a third successive encounter in all competitions.
Canada have a 100% record all-time in Nations League home fixtures, conceding just once in four matches while outscoring their opponents 12-1 in three of those games which took place at BMO Field.
They are unbeaten in their last 29 matches when scoring multiple times within 90 minutes, winning in 27 of those instances.
Les Rouges have not lost to a Caribbean opponent on North American soil in over four years since Haiti came back to beat them 3-2 in the 2019 Gold Cup quarter-finals.
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It was another slow start for the Reggae Boyz on Saturday, one which they could not overcome this time as they suffered their first-ever defeat in the Nations League.
That was the third time at this tournament this season that they had conceded the opening goal, extending their winless run against North American sides to 14 matches in all competitions.
They have lost their last two quarter-final encounters versus North American opponents and are winless against that region in their previous eight CONCACAF tournaments since a 2-1 triumph versus Canada at the 2017 Gold Cup.
Heimir Hallgrimsson's men have won both of their Nations League encounters this season when scoring in the opening half, though five of their seven goals conceded have occurred within the first 45 minutes of play.
The Reggae Boyz have followed up their previous two international defeats with victories and have not lost consecutive games versus CONCACAF opponents since early 2022, when they were beaten on three successive occasions from late January to early February against Mexico (2-1), Panama (3-2) and Costa Rica (1-0).
Jamaica have never won a game on Canadian soil, while they have lost their last three matches played against the Canucks at BMO Field by a combined score of 9-1.
Team News
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Milan Borjan picked up his 79th cap for the Canadians on Saturday, putting him two behind Dwayne De Rosario for fifth all-time, Jonathan Osorio made his 70th appearance and Tajon Buchanan was in the starting 11 for the first time since their 2-0 triumph over Panama in the semi-finals of the previous Nations League campaign.
Samuel Piette remains on 67 caps, one fewer than Lyndon Hooper for ninth all-time, while Steven Vitoria is four away from 50, Richie Laryea is three behind that mark and Alphonso Davies needs seven more caps to reach that milestone.
Against Jamaica, Jonathan David notched his 26th goal in Canadian colours, two shy of the all-time mark held by teammate Cyle Larin, while Stephen Eustaquio put home the winner, his fourth for the Canucks and his first in over two years.
Hallgrimsson went with an entirely different starting 11 from their previous match when they played Guatemala to a 0-0 draw in a friendly earlier this month, with Javain Brown, who features at club level for the Vancouver Whitecaps, being the only Jamaican to play in both of those games, replacing Dexter Lembikisa late in the second half on Saturday.
Andre Blake has conceded multiple strikes in his last four competitive matches between the sticks for Jamaica, while Michail Antonio is still searching for his first goal at the Nations League and has not found the back of the net for the national team since January 2022.
Shamar Nicholson had their only goal over the weekend, netting for a third successive time in this competition, while Demarai Gray did not feature in their previous encounter after scoring in their last two Nations League fixtures before that.
Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Johnston, Cornelius, Adekugbe; Laryea, Eustaquio, Osorio, Davies; Buchanan, David, Larin
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Brown, Bernard, Pinnock, Leigh; Lautibeaudiere, Johnson; Decordova-Reid, Nicholson, Bailey; Antonio
We say: Canada 2-0 Jamaica (Canada advance 4-1 on aggregate)
With Eustaquio in the midfield, the Canadians seem to be able to unlock opposing defences more efficiently, and facing an inconsistent backline like Jamaica, we believe Canada will be able to find a way through.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
