It should be a fascinating tactical chess match between a pair of sides who know how to defend effectively, though we are giving the edge to the Paraguayans, who have shown a little more commitment and consistency behind the ball. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.22%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Cerro Porteno
50.22% ( 0.16)	23.32% ( 0.03)	26.46% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 58.74% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.76% (

-0.28)

42.23% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.36% (

-0.28)

64.64% (

0.28)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.05% (

-0.05)

16.95% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.98% (

-0.08)

47.02% (

0.08)

Cerro Porteno Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.73% (

-0.29)

29.27% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.76% (

-0.35)

65.24% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Penarol 50.22%

Cerro Porteno 26.46%

Draw 23.31%

Penarol	Draw	Cerro Porteno
2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 7.82% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.68% 3-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.07% Total : 50.22%	1-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.31%	1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.31% Total : 26.46%