Rock-bottom Doncaster Rovers host promotion chasing Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, as they seek to secure rare back-to-back wins.
Despite picking up just their fifth victory of the season last week, Rovers are still nine points from League One safety, while the visitors hope to reignite their playoff push having collected one point from their last three games.
Match preview
© Reuters
Coming into last Saturday's encounter with MK Dons on a run of five straight league defeats, Doncaster were not expected to take anything home from their visit to a club contending for Championship football.
However, Gary McSheffrey's men upset the odds - and clawed themselves a little closer to some of their relegation rivals - despite withstanding significant pressure and giving up 75% of the ball; Joe Dodoo's first-half strike ultimately proving enough to steal all three points.
After halting a losing streak dating back to the end of last year - started by a 3-0 home reverse to Sunderland and also featuring a heart-wrenching 4-3 loss against Morecambe having lead by three goals - Rovers will now target their first home victory since beating Shrewsbury in early December.
The Reds may have already conceded nearly a half-century of goals in League One this term, but can glean confidence from a brave defensive performance in Milton Keynes, which earned them a precious clean sheet.
McSheffrey has outlined a new approach to his side's survival fight in recent weeks, though results had been slow to follow, and a commitment to a direct style and ceaseless workrate may help the South Yorkshire side defy their lowly status to topple Plymouth this weekend.
© Reuters
Having enjoyed a narrow 2-1 win in the reverse fixture - in which they notched the winner through Conor Grant's stoppage-time penalty - Plymouth will hope for another slice of fortune to fall their way on Saturday.
Denied by a similarly late equaliser on Tuesday, the Pilgrims have now drawn one and lost two of their last three outings and sit outside the playoff places.
Leading by two goals with only a minute of the 90 remaining, they contrived to draw 3-3 at Fleetwood in midweek, following successive defeats to Lincoln City and Sheffield Wednesday.
Plymouth leaked nine goals across those games, and they have accrued only two wins in their last 10 league fixtures, leaving manager Steven Schumacher targeting transfer window recruits as he tries to steady the ship in the Devonian port city.
Nonetheless, Schumacher's side are still just two points behind Oxford United, who occupy the final top-six spot, and he will expect that a rocky start as Argyle boss will make way for calmer waters - starting this weekend, at the league's bottom side.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
With a depleted squad of late, Plymouth included rookie midfielder Will Jenkins-Davies on the bench at Fleetwood, but Steven Schumacher could have a pair of regulars back in action on Saturday.
Ryan Hardie, who has missed the last three matches with a shoulder problem, and Jordan Houghton (ankle) should be available for Doncaster's visit, after the latter was ruled out in midweek having picked up his injury during the defeat to Lincoln.
Meanwhile, Macaulay Gillesphey was forced off on Tuesday due to a hamstring issue and his fitness will be assessed before the game. However, Danny Mayor (back) is set to remain sidelined for the visitors, who also have long-term knee injury victims Brendan Galloway and George Cooper out of commission.
The hosts could feature recent signing Adam Clayton, who left Birmingham City by mutual consent in November and has agreed a short-term deal to aid Doncaster's fight for survival.
Following a resolute showing at the heart of the back four last weekend, Ollie Younger left the pitch with his head bandaged, but is still expected to be available to Gary McSheffrey.
Following his crucial strike at MK Dons, industrious striker Joe Dodoo will hope to continue his upturn as he leads the hosts' line once again. He should be supported by Kieran Agard, who moved from Plymouth on a free transfer earlier this month.
Doncaster Rovers possible starting lineup:
Jones; Knoyle, Younger, Olowu, Horton; Smith, Galbraith, Rowe; Agard, Dodoo, Bogle
Plymouth Argyle possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Wilson, Scarr, Crichlow; Edwards, Randell, Camara, Broom, Grant; Hardie, Jephcott
We say: Doncaster Rovers 2-2 Plymouth Argyle
Though a gulf of 25 points separates the sides before kickoff, Donny's breakthrough win and Plymouth's propensity to concede goals means that the hosts can take at least one point from a closely-contested affair.
Eager to get back on track in League One before their FA Cup glamour tie with Chelsea, the visitors may over-commit and leave spaces for the hosts to exploit.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 47.46%. A win for Doncaster Rovers had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Doncaster Rovers win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
