Genoa will end their 2019-20 Serie A campaign against Hellas Verona on Sunday knowing that they are still in real danger of dropping into the relegation zone.
The hosts are currently 17th in the table but are only one point clear of 18th-placed Lecce, meaning that failing to overcome Verona this weekend could see them slide into the bottom three.
Match preview
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Genoa have not played outside of Italy's top flight since the 2006-07 campaign, but they only just survived relegation last term - finishing 17th - and are in danger of dropping into Serie B for the 2020-21 season.
l Grifone have struggled for consistency this term, winning just nine of their 37 league matches, suffering 19 defeats in the process. They will enter Sunday's clash off the back of defeats to Inter Milan and Sassuolo, meanwhile, where they conceded eight times and failed to find the back of the net.
Davide Nicola's side know that a win against Verona would keep them in the league regardless of how Lecce get on at home to Parma on the same night. However, a defeat or a draw would open the door for Lecce to claim 17th, relegating Genoa to the second tier in the process.
The Red and Blues ran out 3-1 winners when the two teams last locked horns at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in April 2018, but Verona recorded a 2-1 success in the reserve match earlier this season.
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Verona, meanwhile, have performed impressively during the 2019-20 campaign, picking up 49 points from their 37 Serie A matches to occupy ninth position in the table.
I Gialloblu were promoted back to the top flight due to their playoff success in Serie B last term, and they could actually finish as high as eighth with a victory this weekend depending on other results, which would be an excellent achievement taking everything into consideration.
Ivan Juric's side have not been in the best of form since returning to action following the lockdown period, though, picking up just three victories from their 12 matches.
Verona were actually on a seven-game winless run in Italy's top flight before recording a 3-0 victory over SPAL on Wednesday night, which moved them into the top half of the table.
Genoa have the fourth-worst home record in the league this season, but Verona have struggled on their travels, winning just three of their 18 away games, suffering eight defeats in the process.
Genoa Serie A form: WLWWLL
Verona Serie A form: DLDDLW
Team News
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Genoa will again be without the services of Ivan Radovanovic for this weekend's contest, while Antonio Sanabria, Stefano Sturaro and Francesco Cassata are also set to miss out.
Nicola is expected to make changes from the side that lost heavily at Sassuolo last time out, with Domenico Criscito and Peter Ankersen among those who could earn starting roles.
Iago Falque is also an option for change, although it seems likely that Goran Pandev will again join Andrea Pinamonti in the final third of the field.
As for Verona, Marash Kumbulla remains on the sidelines with an arm injury, while Claud Adjapong and Pawel Dawidowicz are also doubts heading into the contest.
Samuel Di Carmine scored a brace in the three-goal success over SPAL last time out and could again keep his spot in the final third, although Giampaolo Pazzini is also pushing for a start.
Mattia Zaccagni is likely to come into the team in an attacking position, while Fabio Borini should keep his spot for the visitors.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Goldaniga, Romero, Zapata, Ankersen; Criscito, Jagiello, Schone, Lerager; Pandev, Pinamonti
Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Faraoni, Gunter, Rrahmani; Lazovic, Amrabat, Pessina, Dimarco; Zaccagni, Di Carmine, Borini
We say: Genoa 1-1 Hellas Verona
Genoa will be determined to pick up a win, but Verona's record this season deserves a lot of respect, and we are struggling to back the visitors to lose on Sunday. It remains to be seen whether a point is enough for Genoa to stay up, but we are predicting a low-scoring draw at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 39%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
