The second Copa Tejas encounter of the 2022 Major League Soccer campaign takes place on Saturday as the Houston Dynamo host Austin FC at PNC Stadium.
Orange Crush dropped a 2-1 decision to Dallas a week ago in the first game of that interstate cup competition between the three Texas teams, while Austin extended their unbeaten run to five in a row, defeating the Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0.
Match preview
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In the first Texas Derby of 2022, it looked as though Houston would get the better of the Toros, taking the lead after 33 minutes before failing to deal with a pair of crosses late in the game, which in the end left them empty-handed.
That defeat snapped a six-match unbeaten run in all competitions for Paulo Nagamura and his team, who are currently holding down the final playoff position in the Western Conference, sitting a point above Nashville SC.
After eight matches, they are in a similar spot to a year ago, currently on 12 points, one more than they had in 2021 at this stage.
Houston will want to avoid a drop like they had last season when they went winless from matchday nine to 22 of the domestic campaign, which ultimately left them with too much ground to make up in the playoff chase.
Their 39-year-old Brazilian coach has said that he wants his team to play positionally sound and dominate possession.
They struggled in both of those two areas at Dallas, with only 49% of the ball and allowing seven shots on target after being slow to get back and cover the open spaces out wide.
So far in 2022, Houston have been a lot more aggressive when winning the ball back, while looking dangerous going forward, particularly at home, scoring six goals in their previous two matches played at PNC Stadium.
Even though the Dynamo have gotten several favourable results thus far, they have not made it easy on themselves, scoring first in three of their last four matches in all competitions, losing last week, while just narrowly defeating RGV Toros (2-1) and the San Jose Earthquakes (4-3).
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The good times in the Texas capital continued last Saturday, as Austin found themselves two goals to the good against the helpless Whitecaps before the match was even 30 minutes old.
That was the fifth time this season in which the Verde and Black had scored the opener, setting a new franchise record for consecutive wins in the process by capturing a third straight MLS affair.
With one match remaining in April, Josh Wolff's side have already scored more league goals (20) than they had in their final 14 regular season encounters of 2021 (18).
In their inaugural MLS campaign, this team won two of their three fixtures versus the Dynamo, though they did drop the only meeting against them at PNC Stadium, 3-0.
At the moment, Austin sit just two points behind Los Angeles FC for the best record in the league, as the Verde and Black prepare for a difficult upcoming schedule.
They will face some stiff challenges in the weeks to come, playing five matches in May against teams currently in a playoff position (Los Angeles Galaxy twice, LAFC, Real Salt Lake and Orlando City).
Austin are very easy on the eye, particularly for neutral fans, showing a clear commitment to playing entertaining and attacking football, and we are seeing their investments upfront pay off handsomely, currently leading the league in goals scored.
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Team News
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Sebastian Ferreira scored his third of the year in their defeat to Dallas, putting him one behind Darwin Quintero for the team lead, while Steve Clark stopped five shots, though he will want to have the equaliser back as he mishandled a low cross, pushing it right to Tsiki Ntsabeleng for a tap-in.
Teenage Hadebe, who scored an own goal in their victory at the U.S. Open Cup against RGV Torors (2-1), missed the Texas Derby through suspension, while Adam Lundqvist picked up his second assist of the campaign in that defeat, moving him ahead of Fafa Picault in that department.
Picault had a brace in their home victory against Austin last season, with the other goal coming courtesy of Griffin Dorsey, who has yet to find the back of the net in 2022.
Former Houston striker Maxi Urruti scored twice in the opening 26 minutes for the Verde and Black last Saturday, putting him second on the team in scoring behind Sebastian Driussi, who has tallied six times this year, which currently puts him in a tie with Jesus Jimenez of Toronto in the race for the Golden Boot.
Only four players who started in their surprise defeat at the U.S. Open Cup to San Antonio FC (2-1) were also in the opening lineup versus Vancouver as Driussi, Ethan Finlay, Diego Fagundez and Julio Cascante kept their place in the starting 11.
Freddy Kleemann is out after undergoing ACL surgery, while Cecilio Dominguez is suspended indefinitely due to an off-field incident.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Clark; Lundqvist, Hadebe, Parker, Dorsey; Rodriguez, Vera, Quintero; Picault, Ferreira, Baird
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Cascante, Gabrielsen, Jimenez; Ring, Pereira; Finlay, Driussi, Fagundez; Urruti
We say: Houston Dynamo 1-3 Austin FC
Houston have looked a lot more organised in the early stages of the season, but they are missing numerous opportunities to put their matches out of reach.
At the same time, Austin are the most potent side in the league and only need a couple of half-chances to make them count, which we believe will make the difference in this encounter.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 33.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 0-1 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
