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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.19%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
40.19% ( -0.14) | 26.87% ( 0.18) | 32.95% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 50.88% ( -0.58) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.79% ( -0.73) | 54.21% ( 0.74) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.38% ( -0.62) | 75.61% ( 0.62) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.54% ( -0.41) | 26.46% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.36% ( -0.56) | 61.64% ( 0.56) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.19% ( -0.39) | 30.81% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.91% ( -0.46) | 67.09% ( 0.47) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
1-0 @ 10.84% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.18% Total : 40.19% | 1-1 @ 12.76% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.06% Total : 32.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 59 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 52 |
3 | Notts County | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 50 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 48 |
6 | Port Vale | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 48 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 47 |
8 | Salford City | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 44 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 42 |
10 | Chesterfield | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 39 |
11 | MK Dons | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 38 |
12 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 37 |
14 | Swindon TownSwindon | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 37 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 35 | 2 | 36 |
16 | Bromley | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 35 |
17 | Gillingham | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 32 |
18 | BarrowBarrow | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 30 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 30 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 29 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 26 |
23 | Morecambe | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 23 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 21 |
> League Two Full Table |