Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 61.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Pau had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Pau win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
