Two of the Bundesliga's relegation candidates will face off in a crunch match on Saturday as Mainz 05 prepare to host Werder Bremen at the Opel Arena.
The teams are separated by six points in the table, with Mainz just above the relegation zone in 15th, while Bremen occupy 17th spot ahead of the penultimate weekend of the season.
Match preview
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Mainz's survival hopes received a huge boost on Wednesday evening as they travelled to Borussia Dortmund and came away from the Westfalenstadion with all three points.
BVB's full-strength lineup had no reply to goals from Jonathan Burkardt and Jean-Philippe Mateta, and that 2-0 victory has all but secured Mainz's Bundesliga status for another season.
Indeed, Achim Beierlorzer's side sit six points above Bremen before their clash on Saturday, and they are five clear of Fortuna Dusseldorf, who occupy the relegation playoff spot.
Dusseldorf just about kept their hopes of staying up alive with a dramatic comeback against RB Leipzig, but a Mainz victory here would seal the fate of Dusseldorf and Bremen with bottom side Paderborn already down and out.
However, Mainz have lost their last three matches at home without finding the back of the net, although they should be brimming with confidence following that impressive victory at Dortmund.
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As if Bayern Munich winning the title in Bremen's own backyard was not painful enough, their 1-0 loss to the champions has practically confirmed Bremen's bottom-three finish with two gameweeks left of the season.
Florian Kohfeldt's side are six points adrift of safety at this very late stage of the campaign, with their 5-1 thrashing of basement side Paderborn proving inconsequential.
Victories at Freiburg and Schalke when the league resumed led some fans to believe that Bremen could produce a great escape, but it would take something truly remarkable to preserve their Bundesliga status now.
Kohfeldt's side have not been condemned to an automatic relegation just yet; Bremen are only one point behind Dusseldorf in the playoff spot so there is still a chance of survival for Die Werderaner, albeit a very slim one.
Bremen have not played outside the German top flight since the 1980-81 season, but anything apart from a win this weekend and the four-time Bundesliga champions may as well start making preparations for life in the second division next year.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LDLWDW
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: DWLLWL
Team News
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Edimilson Fernandes is back in the fold following a one-match suspension and has a chance to return to the Mainz midfield.
Die Nullfunfer are still without goalkeeper Robin Zentner, and forward Taiwo Awoniyi is unlikely to feature following a neck injury.
With regards to Bremen, Omer Toprak, Kevin Vogt and Kevin Mohwald are all sidelined, while Nuri Sahin and Ludwig Augustinsson are both doubts with hip injuries.
Kohfeldt will likely stick with a three-man defence, with Sebastian Langkamp set to slot in alongside Milos Veljkovic and Niklas Moisander.
Striker Joshua Sargent came off the bench for the final 30 minutes against Bayern, but the American could feature from the opening whistle on Saturday.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Muller; Baku, St. Juste, Niakhate, Martin; Latza, Kunde; Burkardt, Quaison, Onisiwo; Mateta
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Veljkovic, Langkamp, Moisander; Gebre Selassie, Eggestein, Klaassen, Friedl; Bittencourt; Rashica, Sargent
We say: Mainz 05 2-1 Werder Bremen
Bremen actually performed pretty well against Bayern and gave the champions a good run for their money, but Mainz's victory over second-placed Dortmund was an incredible feat and we expect the home side to build upon that win with another three points and confirm their top-flight status.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.14%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
