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Millwall logo
Championship | Gameweek 21
Dec 4, 2021 at 3pm UK
The Den
Birmingham logo

Millwall
3 - 1
Birmingham

Wallace (10'), Bradshaw (41'), Evans (74')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Deeney (56')
Pedersen (20'), Roberts (50')

Preview: Millwall vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Millwall will be looking to claim their first Championship victory in over a month when they welcome Birmingham City to The Den on Saturday afternoon.

The visitors, meanwhile, are hoping to secure back-to-back league wins for the first time since October and climb into the top half of the table.


Match preview

Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured on November 27, 2021© Reuters

Millwall extended their winless league run to four matches when they suffered a 2-1 defeat away against Hull City last weekend.

Tom Bradshaw's strike in first-half stoppage time cancelled out George Honeyman's opener, however the hosts regained the lead seven minutes after the break through Ryan Longman and were able to hold on for all three points.

Gary Rowett's men remain 10th in the Championship standings, but the gap between them and the playoffs has now increased to six points.

Millwall have struggled defensively in recent weeks, keeping only one clean sheet in their last nine league games. The Lions will, however, be confident of keeping Birmingham's attack quiet on Saturday as they have kept seven clean sheets in their last nine league matches against the Blues, including shutouts in both encounters last season.

Rowett's side also have an impressive record on home soil, losing just one of their last eight Championship matches at The Den, as well as scoring in each of their last 12 games in front of the Lions faithful.

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring their first goal against Derby County in the Championship on September 10, 2021© Reuters

Birmingham ended a run of three league games without a win when they secured a slender 1-0 win at home against high-flying Blackpool last weekend.

After a goalless first half, the deadlock was eventually broken in the 81st minute when substitute Lukas Jutkiewicz bundled the ball in from close range, netting just his second goal of the campaign.

That result has seen the Blues climb three places up to 14th in the Championship, 10 points clear of the relegation zone and seven behind the top six.

Lee Bowyer's men travel to Millwall on Saturday after winning only one of their last eight league games away from home and failing to score on six occasions in the process.

Following a 2-0 loss at The Den last season, Birmingham will be hoping to avoid successive league defeats at Millwall for the first time since losing in 1994 and 1996 under former boss Barry Fry.

Millwall Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W


Team News

Birmingham City's Ryan Woods is shown a red card by the referee on November 23, 2021© Reuters

Millwall will be without versatile midfielder Ryan Leonard and winger Connor Mahoney as they continue to recover from respective ankle and hamstring injuries.

After using a 4-2-3-1 formation in the defeat to Hull, Rowett may decide to revert back to a 3-4-3 system this weekend, which could see centre-back Jake Cooper return to the starting lineup.

Bradshaw will be hoping to retain his place in the first XI, however attacking trio Benik Afobe, Jed Wallace and Sheyi Ojo are all expected to start.

As for Birmingham, midfield due Ryan Woods and Gary Gardner will serve the second and third of their respective three and four-match suspensions and both will next be available to play on December 18 against Blackburn Rovers.

The Blues will also be without George Friend (leg), Maxime Colin (Achilles) and Adan George (knee) due to injury.

Bowyer is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, though both Jutkiewicz and Chuks Aneke will be hoping to force their way into the first XI, after starting on the bench last weekend.

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Ballard, Hutchinson, Cooper; McNamara, Saville, Mitchell, Malone; J. Wallace, Ojo; Afobe

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Sarkic; Sanderson, Roberts, Pederson; Graham, James, Sunjic, McGree, Bela; Hogan, Deeney


SM words green background

We say: Millwall 2-1 Birmingham City

Millwall and Birmingham head into this contest off the back of contrasting results last weekend, with the Blues in higher spirits and hoping to leapfrog the Lions in the table with a victory.

However, the hosts have enjoyed playing at The Den in recent weeks and we can see Rowett's men returning to winning ways with a narrow win.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 42.88%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 27.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.72%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Millwall would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Millwall vs Birmingham

Millwall
64.0%
Draw
28.0%
Birmingham City
8.0%
25
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds1695228121632
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4Burnley168621961330
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea165471414019
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
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