Orlando City take on FC Cincinnati in the Eastern Conference of MLS on Saturday, with both sides looking to record their first victories this season.
Orlando are unbeaten after two draws, while Cincinnati have lost one and drawn one so far.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having finished fourth in last season's Eastern Conference table and subsequently qualified for the playoffs for the first time in the club's history, Orlando City will be looking to build on that achievement this season.
Indeed, last season was by far the club's most successful campaign since being founded in 2013, with former Colombia international Oscar Pareja demonstrably instilling more professionalism within the ranks.
However, the 52-year-old will be hoping that his side can get off the mark in terms of wins this season after two draws against Atlanta United and Sporting Kansas City.
Former Manchester United winger Nani - who is currently Orlando's club captain - earned a share of the spoils with a late equaliser last time out, taking his tally to 22 goals for the club.
© Reuters
Cincinnati, meanwhile, are an even newer club than their forthcoming opponents, having only been founded in 2018.
They have certainly found life tough in the MLS so far, finishing 12th in their debut campaign and rock-bottom last season.
Former Man Utd defender Jaap Stam has struggled to provide any major improvement since being appointed as head coach last May, having been thrashed 5-0 at New York City FC last time out after squandering a two-goal lead to Nashville SC on the opening day.
Stam will be keen to avoid becoming the Eastern Conference's whipping boys, with NYCFC's tally of 10 shots on target across the 90 minutes an alarming statistic ahead of Saturday's match against an Orlando side packed with attacking talent.
- D
- D
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Former AC Milan forward Alexandre Pato missed Orlando's 1-1 draw in Kansas City last time out, and will likely be absent once again due to a leg injury.
Robin Jansson, Oriol Rosell and David Loera are all suffering with leg injuries, too, so are unlikely to be considered by Pareja for selection.
Tesho Akindele is likely to lead the line, with Nani hoping to profit from any space in behind.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, are likely to travel to Orlando without Maikel van der Werff, Franko Kovacevic and Isaac Atanga due to injury.
Jurgen Locadia, who is on loan from Brighton & Hove Albion, could make his first league start of the season having only been used from the bench by Stam in the opening two matches, with other changes possible after the drubbing suffered in New York.
Gustavo Vallecilla remains unavailable due to visa issues.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Teixeira, Carlos, Schlegel, Smith; Urso, Mendez, Perea; Michel, Akindele, Nani
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Cropper; Gyau, Bailey, Pettersson, Matarrita; Barreal, Mokotjo, Kubo, Locadia; Cruz; Brenner
We say: Orlando City 2-1 FC Cincinnati
We expect the hosts to earn their first win of the season against a Cincinnati side which looked desperately out of sorts in their 5-0 defeat to NYCFC.
However, Stam's side will almost certainly show more fight and spirit than in that loss, with Orlando likely to be made to work much harder for a win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 58.87%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 19.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.
