Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 69.7%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 13.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 1-0 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.79%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.