Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Portimonense |
43.64% ( 0.07) | 25.36% ( 0.02) | 30.99% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 54.98% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.4% ( -0.13) | 48.6% ( 0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.28% ( -0.12) | 70.72% ( 0.12) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.77% ( -0.02) | 22.23% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.35% ( -0.04) | 55.65% ( 0.04) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.69% ( -0.13) | 29.31% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.72% ( -0.16) | 65.28% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Portimonense |
1-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 43.64% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 8% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.38% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.49% Total : 30.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 15 | 41 | 50 |
2 | Benfica | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 16 | 30 | 44 |
3 | Porto | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 17 | 27 | 42 |
4 | Braga | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 40 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 35 |
6 | Casa Pia | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 29 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 24 |
11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 23 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 22 |
14 | Nacional | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 12 |
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