Seeking their first international victory since November 2020, Venezuela welcome Ecuador to the Estadio Olimpico de la UCV for their 2022 World Cup qualifier on Sunday.
The hosts have lost each of their last five South American qualifiers while the visitors have accumulated seven points during the same period.
Match preview
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Venezuela's unwanted winless run was extended to 10 matches across all competitions when they were beaten 3-1 at home against South American giants Brazil on Friday.
Never in their history have La Vinotinto beaten Brazil in a World Cup qualifier, however they were seemingly on course to break that duck after Eric Ramirez headed in the opening goal in the 11th minute. The hosts went into half time ahead and held onto their lead up until the 71st minute when Marquinhos found himself free at the far post to head home the equaliser.
Brazil then managed to turn the game on his head, when Gabriel Barbosa converted from the penalty spot after being brought down in the 85th minute, before Antony tapped in from close range to condemn Venezuela to their sixth successive defeat.
Leonardo Gonzalez's side have now lost eight of their 10 World Cup qualifiers and remain at the foot of the table, 10 points behind Colombia in fifth who currently occupy the inter-confederation playoff spot.
Venezuela head into Sunday's clash having failed to win any of their last seven meetings against Ecuador. Even if they were to secure their first victory over La Tri since July 2011, their hopes of qualifying for their first ever World Cup tournament look incredibly slim.
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As for Ecuador, they have climbed up to third in the South American standings after securing a comfortable 3-0 victory over Bolivia on Friday.
La Tri raced into a three-goal lead in the first 19 minutes when Michael Estrada's opening strike was followed by a brace from former West Ham United forward Enner Valencia.
For the third successive World Cup qualification campaign, Ecuador find themselves in the top three after their first 10 matches. However, they will not want a repeat of their 2018 qualification campaign, which saw La Tri claim just three points from their final eight matches, costing them a place at the tournament in Russia.
With an encounter against Colombia sandwiched in between two qualifiers against Venezuela, Gustavo Alfaro will be confident that his side can pick up more points as they aim to consolidate their place in the top four.
A victory on Sunday against Venezuela – who they have drawn against in each of their last three meetings – would see them climb above Argentina into second place, if they were to lose against Uruguay.
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Team News
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While Venezuela cope without strikers Salomon Rondon and Josef Martinez, Ramirez is set to lead the line once again after scoring his first international goal on Friday.
Experienced captain Tomas Rincon, who has 109 international caps to his name, started in midfield alongside Philadelphia Union's Jose Martinez on Friday, who has featured on only nine occasions for his country. The pair are expected to remain in the first XI, with Junior Moreno and Cristian Casseres options on the bench.
Gonzalez is set to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation, with defenders Ronald Hernandez, Josua Mejias, Nahuel Ferraresi and Oscar Gonzalez expected to continue in the back four.
As for Ecuador, Alfaro is unlikely to make many, if any, changes to the starting lineup that beat Bolivia.
Goalkeeper Moises Ramirez, who made his international debut on Friday could be handed another start ahead of experienced stopper Alexander Dominguez, while Felix Torres and Piero Hincapie, who have eight caps each, are set to continue their partnership at the heart of the defence.
Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Moises Caicedo, who is currently on loan with Beerschot Wilrijk, is expected to start in a deep-lying role alongside Carlos Gruezo, with an advanced midfield trio of Angel Mena, Gonzalo Plata and Valencia providing support for central striker Estrada.
Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Hernandez, Mejias, Ferraresi, O. Gonzalez; Rincon, Martinez; Machis, Soteldo, Penaranda; Ramirez
Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Castillo, Torres, Hincapie, Estupinan; Gruezo, Caicedo; Mena, Plata, Valencia; Estrada
We say: Venezuela 0-2 Ecuador
Ecuador found their groove when they returned to winning ways against Bolivia and they could be in for another comfortable evening on Sunday against basement nation Venezuela.
The hosts will likely play with freedom considering that their hopes of World Cup qualification are all but over, however the visitors still have plenty to play for and we expect them come out on top in Caracas.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
