MX23RW : Tuesday, March 11 16:47:28| >> :300:86500:86500:
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 12
Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
3 - 0
Aberystwyth

Clarke (59' pen.), Davies (66'), Lloyd (85')
Cartwright (4'), Donohue (63'), Gosset (78')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Thorn (28'), H (82')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Aberystwyth Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 4-0 Caernarfon
Saturday, October 7 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Aberystwyth Town

All competitions
Last Game: Aberystwyth 1-1 Connah's Quay
Friday, October 6 at 8pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
43.2% (1.592 1.59) 24.89% (-0.038 -0.04) 31.91% (-1.556 -1.56)
Both teams to score 56.99% (-0.434 -0.43)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.83% (-0.32100000000001 -0.32)46.16% (0.317 0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.54% (-0.302 -0.3)68.46% (0.30099999999999 0.3)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.6% (0.60900000000001 0.61)21.4% (-0.611 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.61% (0.93 0.93)54.39% (-0.933 -0.93)
Aberystwyth Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.5% (-1.125 -1.13)27.5% (1.122 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37% (-1.473 -1.47)63% (1.47 1.47)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 43.2%
    Aberystwyth Town 31.91%
    Draw 24.89%
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
1-0 @ 9.07% (0.285 0.29)
2-1 @ 9.03% (0.166 0.17)
2-0 @ 7% (0.344 0.34)
3-1 @ 4.64% (0.168 0.17)
3-0 @ 3.6% (0.239 0.24)
3-2 @ 3% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.79% (0.096 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.116 0.12)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 43.2%
1-1 @ 11.71%
0-0 @ 5.88% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.83% (-0.077 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.29% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.89%
0-1 @ 7.6% (-0.14 -0.14)
1-2 @ 7.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
0-2 @ 4.9% (-0.252 -0.25)
1-3 @ 3.25% (-0.212 -0.21)
2-3 @ 2.51% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-3 @ 2.11% (-0.18 -0.18)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 31.91%

Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Aberystwyth
2-4
Caernarfon
Owen (4'), Lewis (26')
Bradford (40'), Jones (66')
Clarke (6', 19'), Davies (71', 90+2')
Lloyd (34')
Apr 22, 2023 12.45pm
Gameweek 10
Aberystwyth
3-2
Caernarfon
Arnison (39'), Cadwallader (55'), Flint (90+4')
Hughes (2'), Bell (45+1')
Mar 17, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Caernarfon
0-1
Aberystwyth
Flint (41')
Jan 21, 2023 5.15pm
Gameweek 22
Aberystwyth
2-1
Caernarfon
Arnison (8'), Flint (77')
Alun (89')
Oct 21, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 12
Caernarfon
2-1
Aberystwyth
O'Rourke (20'), Marsh-Hughes (73')
Litchfield (81')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1The New SaintsNew Saints27220576284866
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont27166548272154
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest27139535191648
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU27125104137441
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon27125104444041
6Bala TownBala Town2771193434032
Relegation Round
1Barry Town UnitedBarry2711794246-440
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay271051239291035
3Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2793153754-1730
4Briton Ferry2774164257-1525
5Newtown AFCNewtown2767143052-2225
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2752202263-4117
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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