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Newtown logo
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 11
Oct 7, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
G.F. Grigg Latham Park

Newtown
4 - 0
Caernarfon

Williams (40', 45+3', 71'), Sears (85')
Evans (51'), Sutton (57'), Cowans (73'), Sears (77'), Mills-Evans (89'), Jones (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Donohue (90+5')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Newtown AFC and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newtown AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 1-0 Bala Town
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Barry 0-3 Caernarfon
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.

Result
Newtown AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
46.5% (-1.394 -1.39) 23.68% (0.375 0.38) 29.81% (1.023 1.02)
Both teams to score 60.09% (-0.632 -0.63)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.39% (-1.135 -1.14)41.61% (1.138 1.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.99% (-1.155 -1.16)64.01% (1.16 1.16)
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.87% (-0.98 -0.98)18.13% (0.984 0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.91% (-1.704 -1.7)49.09% (1.709 1.71)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.4% (0.10899999999999 0.11)26.61% (-0.105 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.17% (0.144 0.14)61.83% (-0.13999999999999 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Newtown AFC 46.5%
    Caernarfon Town 29.81%
    Draw 23.68%
Newtown AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
2-1 @ 9.31% (-0.089 -0.09)
1-0 @ 8.24% (0.161 0.16)
2-0 @ 7.03% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-1 @ 5.3% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-0 @ 4% (-0.182 -0.18)
3-2 @ 3.51% (-0.138 -0.14)
4-1 @ 2.26% (-0.174 -0.17)
4-0 @ 1.71% (-0.136 -0.14)
4-2 @ 1.5% (-0.11 -0.11)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 46.5%
1-1 @ 10.9% (0.24 0.24)
2-2 @ 6.16% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.82% (0.244 0.24)
3-3 @ 1.55% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.68%
1-2 @ 7.22% (0.183 0.18)
0-1 @ 6.39% (0.341 0.34)
0-2 @ 4.23% (0.238 0.24)
1-3 @ 3.19% (0.09 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.72% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.87% (0.11 0.11)
1-4 @ 1.06% (0.033 0.03)
2-4 @ 0.9%
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 29.81%

Head to Head
Aug 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Caernarfon
2-1
Newtown
Mooney (40'), Lloyd (90+1')
Clarke (45+4'), Davies (53'), Mooney (60'), Thomas (84')
Davies (82')
Williams (90+10')
Evans (18'), Roberts (68'), Ismail (80'), Boakye (84')
Dec 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Caernarfon
2-3
Newtown
O'Rourke (30'), Edwards (62')
Robles (8'), Williams (27'), Rushton (53')
Aug 30, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Newtown
2-1
Caernarfon
Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
Oct 23, 2021 5.15pm
Gameweek 10
Newtown
1-0
Caernarfon
Mwandwe (45+2')
Roberts (45'), (88'), Jones (90+5')

Hughes (40'), Edwards (42'), John Williams (58'), Jones (88'), Evans (90+1')
Aug 27, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Caernarfon
0-2
Newtown

Edwards (24'), (82'), Jones (84')
Evans (34')
Evans (52'), Williams (85')
(24')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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