World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Mar 27, 2022 at 10.05pm UK

El Salvador
1 - 2
Costa Rica

Gil (31')
Larin (49'), Reyes (68')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Contreras (30'), Campbell (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between El Salvador and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

El Salvador

Last Six:

Last Game: Grenada 2-2 El Salvador
Wednesday, June 8 at 12am in CONCACAF Nations League

Next Game: El Salvador vs. USA
Wednesday, June 15 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

Costa Rica

Last Six:

Last Game: Costa Rica 2-0 Martinique
Sunday, June 5 at 6pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Next Game: Martinique vs. Costa Rica
Friday, March 24 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League

We said: El Salvador 0-1 Costa Rica

For these defensive-minded sides to put up three goals between them in their previous encounter was a rarity, as they both tend to play rather cagey without taking too many risks. With that being said, momentum is on the side of the Costa Ricans, who look determined to get back to the World Cup, and we expect that desperation, along with the goalkeeping of Keylor Navas, to earn them three points in this match. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Salvador win with a probability of 34.74%. A win for Costa Rica had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 31.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a El Salvador win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.91%) and 2-1 (6.52%). The likeliest Costa Rica win was 0-1 (13.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Costa Rica would win this match.

Result
El Salvador	Draw	Costa Rica
34.74%	31.72%	33.54%

Both teams to score 37.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

29.9%

70.1%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

12.7%

87.3%

El Salvador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.95%

38.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.18%

74.82%

Costa Rica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.09%

38.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.36%

75.64%

Score Analysis

El Salvador 34.73%

Costa Rica 33.54%

Draw 31.71%

El Salvador	Draw	Costa Rica
1-0 @ 14.3% 2-0 @ 6.91% 2-1 @ 6.52% 3-0 @ 2.23% 3-1 @ 2.1% 3-2 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.68% Total : 34.73%	0-0 @ 14.8% 1-1 @ 13.5% 2-2 @ 3.08% Other @ 0.33% Total : 31.71%	0-1 @ 13.97% 0-2 @ 6.6% 1-2 @ 6.37% 0-3 @ 2.08% 1-3 @ 2.01% 2-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.55% Total : 33.54%