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Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Indian Wells Masters final between Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Two years on from facing off in the 2022 Indian Wells Masters final, Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari cross paths once again in California, this time with the 2024 women's singles title on the line.

The world number one eased past a physically-hampered Marta Kostyuk in the semi-finals, while Sakkari came up trumps in an enthralling affair with home favourite Coco Gauff.


Match preview

Iga Swiatek pictured at the Indian Wells Masters on March 15, 2024© Reuters

Yet to drop a set in the American sunshine so far, Swiatek made extremely light work of all of Danielle Collins, Linda Noskova and Yulia Putintseva before Caroline Wozniacki retired injured from their quarter-final, although the Pole had already won the first set against her Danish foe.

Ukrainian 31st seed Kostyuk would not represent a significant obstacle for Swiatek to overcome either, as the world number one needed just 69 minutes to earn a 6-2 6-1 triumph, converting both of her break points in the first set and taking full advantage of her opponent's foot injury in the second.

Swiatek came through a semi-final stroll without facing a single break point while committing a mere six unforced errors - in comparison, Kostyuk made 23 such mistakes - and the Pole's 14th winner of the day saw her take her first match point with a trademark down-the-line forehand return.

Bidding to become the first women's top seed to win the Indian Wells title since Victoria Azarenka in 2012, Swiatek is also on the hunt for a second WTA 1000 crown of the year - having emerged triumphant from the Qatar Open - and an eighth Masters win overall.

From the 22-year-old's previous nine WTA 1000 finals, she has only been forced to accept the runners-up prize on two occasions - at the 2023 Dubai Championships and Madrid Open - and victory on Sunday would see her become just the 10th woman to clinch more than one Indian Wells singles title.

Maria Sakkari reacts at the Indian Wells Masters on March 15, 2024© Reuters

Swiatek's trophy haul significantly trumps that of her upcoming adversary Sakkari, who was no match for the world number one during the 2022 trophy match in California but has already defeated one Grand Slam champion en route to Sunday's blockbuster battle.

Following four challenging encounters with Caroline Garcia, Diana Shnaider, Diane Parry and Emma Navarro - where she only managed to beat the former in straight sets - Sakkari found herself up against both reigning US Open champion Gauff and the expectant American crowd in Friday's second tantalising semi-final.

However, Sakkari stunned the home favourite in a captivating 6-4 6-7[5] 6-2 victory, during which she saved three match points in the second set after Gauff fought back from 5-2 down to force a decider, but too many forehand errors from the third seed proved fatal.

Thriving under the wing of new coach David Witt - a former trainer for Venus Williams and Jessica Pegula - the 28-year-old is now gearing up for her fourth WTA Masters final and already has one triumph to her name at this level, overcoming Caroline Dolehide in the 2023 Guadalajara Open headliner.

That success last September represents Sakkari's second and most recent title win on the WTA Tour, but the Greek ninth seed has fallen to defeat on seven occasions with a top-level title on the line and is already no stranger to Indian Wells heartache against the reigning world number one.


Tournament so far

Iga Swiatek:

Second round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-3 6-0
Third round: vs. Linda Noskova 6-4 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Yulia Putintseva 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Caroline Wozniacki 6-4 1-0 ret.
Semi-final: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-2 6-1

Maria Sakkari:

Second round: vs. Diana Shnaider 5-7 6-4 6-0
Third round: vs. Caroline Garcia 6-3 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Diane Parry 6-2 3-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Emma Navarro 5-7 6-2 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Coco Gauff 6-4 6-7[5] 6-2


Head To Head

Indian Wells Masters (2022) - Final: Swiatek wins 6-4 6-1
Qatar Open (2022) - Semi-final: Swiatek wins 6-4 6-4
WTA Finals (2021) - Round-robin: Sakkari wins 6-2 6-4
Ostrava Open (2021) - Semi-final: Sakkari wins 6-4 7-5
French Open (2021) - Quarter-final: Sakkari wins 6-4 6-4

Swiatek and Sakkari's head-to-head reading makes for pleasant reading for supporters of the latter, who has curiously prevailed in three of her previous five meetings with the 22-year-old - who in turn boasts two victories - on the WTA Tour.

However, all three of those triumphs came during their opening three encounters in the 2021 season, where Sakkari overcame the fledgling Swiatek at the French Open, Ostrava Open and WTA Finals, and the Pole has since had her opponent's number.

After earning her maiden win over Sakkari at the 2022 Qatar Open, Swiatek defeated the ninth seed 6-4 6-1 in this exact match two years ago for her first Indian Wells title, but the duo have not clashed racquets on the WTA Tour since that day, where both women racked up a staggering seven double faults apiece.


SM words green background

We say: Swiatek to win in two sets

With exemplary movement and strong defensive play, Sakkari may feel well-equipped to deal with Swiatek's ferocious ball-striking, but only one of the Greek's victories at Indian Wells so far has been convincing.

In stark contrast, Swiatek has obliterated every foe in her path and looks unbeatable when her enviable forehands find the mark, and given Sakkari's propensity to fall short in finals too, we can only envisage the world number one repeating her trick from 2022 to win Indian Wells title number two.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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