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Preview: Olympics: Qinwen Zheng vs. Donna Vekic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Olympic Games Tennis final match between Qinwen Zheng and Donna Vekic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

History will be made on Saturday when Qinwen Zheng of China meets Croatia's Donna Vekic in the gold medal singles match at the Paris 2024 Olympics.

Both women are battle-tested and have overcome the top seeds en route to the decider, with the 21-year-old Chinese stunning Iga Swiatek in the last four while Vekic beat Coco Gauff in the third round at Roland Garros.


Match preview

Qinwen Zheng in action at the Paris Olympics on August 1, 2024© Imago

Absolutely nobody — perhaps except Zheng — foresaw the events of Thursday's semi-final in which the Chinese star ousted gold medal favourite Swiatek in straight sets.

The No. 1 seed is always the favourite on the clay courts in these parts, underscored by three straight titles at the French Open and four Slams overall in five years on this surface.

Swiatek entered the semis on a 25-match winning streak in Paris, with 23 consecutive victories coming on the surface in 2024, but Zheng had other ideas, coming out on top 6-2 in the first set and roaring back from 4-0 down in the second to win 7-5 to set up Saturday's final.

It was the Chinese player's first win over the dominant champion at the seventh time of asking, as she became the first Asian player (male or female) to reach the decider of the singles event at the Olympics.

Zheng has overcome two three-hour victories en route to facing Vekic, defeating Emma Navarro in the third round and getting the better of now-retired Angelique Kerber in the last eight, and it remains to be seen if she has anything left in the tank against her Croatian opponent.

Donna Vekic reacts at the Paris Olympics on August 1, 2024© Imago

While Vekic has not overcome anyone with Swiatek-like dominance on clay, beating Gauff in the third round was an undoubted statement win.

The Croatian has carried her impressive form into the Olympics, reaching the final here having been eliminated in a thrilling last-four match against Jasmine Paolini on the lawns of Wimbledon a few weeks back.

Having relied on several three-set matches to reach the last four at SW19, the 28-year-old has had a calmer ride in Paris, even if she could have exited in the quarter-final match against Marta Kostyuk.

That match ended in a 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(8) success for the experienced player before dispatching Anna Schmiedlova 6-4, 6-0 in the semis to set up a historic final against Zheng.

No Croatian tennis player has ever reached this stage of the Games, providing immense motivation for the fresher Vekic, who should be doubly determined to end her opponent's 10-match winning streak.


Tournament so far

Qinwen Zheng:

First round: vs. Sara Errani 6-0 6-0
Second round: vs. Arantxa Rus 6-2 6-4
Third round: vs. Emma Navarro 6-7[7] 7-6[4] 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Angelique Kerber 6-7[4] 6-4 7-6[6]
Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-2 7-5

Donna Vekic:

First round: vs. Lucia Bronzetti 6-2 7-5
Second round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 6-3 6-4
Third round: vs. Coco Gauff 7-6[7] 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-4 2-6 7-6[8]
Semi-final: vs. Anna Schmiedlova 6-4 6-0


Head To Head

Courmayeur (2021) - Round of 32: Vekic 7-6(1) 6-2

Zhuhai (2023) - Round 1: Zheng 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4

Zheng and Vekic have met on two previous occasions on Tour, with both women tied 1-1.

The Croatian defeated her then-19-year-old opponent in straight sets in their first meeting in 2021, but the more mature Chinese player got the better of her more experienced opponent in three last year.

Zheng can count on deep runs in major competitions this year, even if she could not get over the line against defending Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka Down Under in January, while Vekic came close to a first Slam final at the Championships weeks back.


SM words green background

We say: Zheng to win in three sets

While much is being made about Zheng's three-hour matches against Navarro and Kerber, Vekic has also accumulated extended minutes on court throughout the Games.

The Chinese will be prepared to go the distance again, and we are backing the 21-year-old to showcase her battle-tested qualities in what should be a thrilling history-making final against her Croatian opponent.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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