Lorenzo Sonego takes on No. 14 seed Tommy Paul on Tuesday night, keen to upset the American in their first-round match at the US Open.
The Italian has typically had it rough in New York, and he is the underdog heading into his tussle with his opponent, who has not exited a Grand Slam in the opening round in two years.
Match preview
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Last year's tournament saw Sonego end a streak of round-one exits at the US Open, even if his journey in the final major of the tennis calendar ended in the second.
The World No. 48 had suffered exits in his tournament-opening match from 2020 to 2022 before getting the better of American qualifier Nicolas Moreno de Alboran in straight sets last year.
He was unsurprisingly eliminated by Jannik Sinner in the following round, powerless to resist the then No. 6 seed, who notched a routine victory over his countryman.
Three round-two exits and as many first-round defeats have marked Sonego's US Open record, showcasing the 29-year-old's struggles at the Slam.
That is doubly buttressed by the player's 33% win rate at Flushing Meadows, significantly lower than his record at the Australian Open (50%), French Open (60%) and Wimbledon (50%).
He has avoided tournament-opening losses in the preceding majors of the year and hopes to keep that run going against his American opponent.
Paul has had a commendable year, notching two Tour-level triumphs having hitherto won just one title on the ATP Tour, and he seeks a deep run on home turf.
However, the 27-year-old has never advanced beyond the fourth round at Flushing Meadows, and his 45% win rate — joint level with his French Open win-loss record — underscores his struggles in his home tournament.
The 27-year-old will push back by highlighting his steady improvement in the last two appearances at the US Open, pointing to his runs to the third and fourth rounds in 2022 and 2023 respectively, following tournament-opening losses in 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2021.
Having avoided early exits in New York in consecutive years, Paul will back himself for an improved run this year, even if he could face a possible meeting with No. 1 seed Sinner in the tournament's fourth round.
After successive third-round exits in the first two majors this year, the American's impressive grass-court season saw him win in Queen's and make the last eight at Wimbledon — losing to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz — and he hopes for another satisfying run at Flushing Meadows.
Head To Head
Rotterdam Open (2021) - Round of 32: Paul 6-4 7-6(7)
Cincinnati Masters (2021) - Round of 32: Sonego 7-6(9) 6-2
Both players have faced off twice on the ATP Tour, but including Challenger contests, Paul leads their head-to-head 2-1.
The American defeated Sonego at the Rotterdam Open three years back in two tight sets and the Italian got his revenge at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 event in the same year.
The 27-year-old entered that event in Cincy as a qualifier, and much has changed in the subsequent three years, with his current No. 14 ranking the clearest indicator.
We say: Paul to win in four sets
Despite his below-par results on home turf in previous years, Paul's year-long superiority over Sonego should see the American avoid an early exit for the third year running at Flushing Meadows, thus continuing the Italian's poor record in New York.
