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Championship | Gameweek 33
Feb 14, 2025 at 8pm UK
Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium
Derby logo

QPR
4 - 0
Derby

Chair (21', 57'), Saito (35'), Edwards (66')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mendez-Laing (65'), Jackson (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Queens Park Rangers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Coventry 1-0 QPR
Tuesday, February 11 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, February 11 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Queens Park Rangers 2-1 Derby County

While the visitors have shown improvement under Hamshaw and the hosts have lost three of their last four, QPR will be the favourites given the difference in league standings, and we expect the home team to come out on top in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 45.89%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Queens Park Rangers would win this match.

Result
Queens Park RangersDrawDerby County
45.89% (-0.289 -0.29) 26.31% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 27.8% (0.257 0.26)
Both teams to score 50.19% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.03% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)53.97% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.59% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)75.41% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Queens Park Rangers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.53% (-0.133 -0.13)23.47% (0.137 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.52% (-0.195 -0.2)57.48% (0.19900000000001 0.2)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.57% (0.209 0.21)34.42% (-0.204 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.86% (0.22 0.22)71.13% (-0.21599999999999 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Queens Park Rangers 45.89%
    Derby County 27.8%
    Draw 26.3%
Queens Park RangersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.7% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.05% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.49% (-0.068999999999999 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.37% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.1% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.59% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.49% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 45.89%
1-1 @ 12.48% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.08% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 4.83% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 26.3%
0-1 @ 8.61% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
1-2 @ 6.66% (0.047 0.05)
0-2 @ 4.59% (0.05 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.37% (0.03 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.015 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.63% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 27.8%

How you voted: QPR vs Derby

Queens Park Rangers
83.0%
Draw
8.0%
Derby County
8.9%
112
Head to Head
Oct 5, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 9
Derby
2-0
QPR
Nelson (54'), Harness (55')
Cashin (38')

Dunne (90+6')
Apr 18, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 43
QPR
1-0
Derby
Amos (88')
Dozzell (59'), Field (72')

Lawrence (56')
Lawrence (90+8')
Nov 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Derby
1-2
QPR
Lawrence (10')
Willock (50'), Gray (90')
Gray (90+1')
Jan 23, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 26
QPR
0-1
Derby

Cameron (31'), Kane (51')
Nov 4, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Derby
0-1
QPR
Bonne (88')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds372310474235179
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd37247652282477
3Burnley372015250113975
4Sunderland371912655342169
5Bristol City38141594941857
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom371317747331456
7Coventry CityCoventry37168135248456
8Middlesbrough37158145748953
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn37157154138352
10Watford37157154750-352
11Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds37149145358-551
12Norwich CityNorwich381213136054649
13Millwall371212133639-348
14Queens Park RangersQPR371111154248-644
15Preston North EndPreston37917113743-644
16Swansea CitySwansea37128173847-944
17Portsmouth37119174559-1442
18Hull City371010173846-840
19Stoke CityStoke37912163750-1339
20Oxford UnitedOxford Utd37912163855-1739
21Cardiff CityCardiff37812174061-2136
22Derby CountyDerby3798203749-1235
23Luton TownLuton3797213460-2634
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth37712183874-3633


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