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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 45.89%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Queens Park Rangers would win this match.
Result | ||
Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Derby County |
45.89% (![]() | 26.31% (![]() | 27.8% (![]() |
Both teams to score 50.19% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.03% (![]() | 53.97% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.59% (![]() | 75.41% (![]() |
Queens Park Rangers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.53% (![]() | 23.47% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.52% (![]() | 57.48% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.57% (![]() | 34.42% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.86% (![]() | 71.13% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 11.7% (![]() 2-1 @ 9.05% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 8.49% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.37% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 4.1% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.33% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.59% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.49% ( ![]() Other @ 2.77% Total : 45.89% | 1-1 @ 12.48% (![]() 0-0 @ 8.08% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.83% ( ![]() Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.3% | 0-1 @ 8.61% (![]() 1-2 @ 6.66% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 4.59% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.37% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.72% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.63% ( ![]() Other @ 2.22% Total : 27.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 74 | 23 | 51 | 79 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 77 |
3 | Burnley | 37 | 20 | 15 | 2 | 50 | 11 | 39 | 75 |
4 | Sunderland | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 55 | 34 | 21 | 69 |
5 | Bristol City | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 57 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 37 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 56 |
7 | Coventry CityCoventry | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 56 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 37 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 53 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 52 |
10 | Watford | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 52 |
11 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 51 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 60 | 54 | 6 | 49 |
13 | Millwall | 37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 48 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 44 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 37 | 9 | 17 | 11 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 44 |
16 | Swansea CitySwansea | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
17 | Portsmouth | 37 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 42 |
18 | Hull City | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 40 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 39 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 39 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 36 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 37 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 35 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 37 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 34 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 37 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 38 | 74 | -36 | 33 |
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