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Toronto FC
Major League Soccer
May 26, 2024 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
FC Cincinnati

Toronto
3 - 4
Cincinnati

Flores (25'), Murphy (63' og.), Insigne (85' pen.)
Flores (33'), Longstaff (60'), Long (78'), Insigne (90+8')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Orellano (53', 79'), Kelsy (55'), Santos (90+3')
Orellano (60'), Robinson (83'), Kelsy (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Toronto 5-1 Montreal
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 3-1 St Louis City
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Toronto 1-2 FC Cincinnati

The Reds are vastly improved this year, but most of their contributions have come from their Designated Players, while they have not played many solid defensive units in recent games. Cincinnati have the composure needed to handle hostile environments and thrive in close games, and that consistency could propel them to a seventh successive MLS triumph. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
45.54% (0.861 0.86) 23.89% (-0.191 -0.19) 30.57% (-0.667 -0.67)
Both teams to score 59.82% (0.324 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.84% (0.576 0.58)42.16% (-0.575 -0.58)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.43% (0.575 0.57)64.56% (-0.574 -0.57)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.26% (0.593 0.59)18.74% (-0.59 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.88% (0.981 0.98)50.12% (-0.979 -0.98)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.62% (-0.139 -0.14)26.38% (0.14 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.46% (-0.189 -0.19)61.53% (0.189 0.19)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 45.54%
    FC Cincinnati 30.57%
    Draw 23.89%
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.24% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
1-0 @ 8.28% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-0 @ 6.93% (0.081 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.16% (0.135 0.14)
3-0 @ 3.87% (0.116 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.44% (0.076 0.08)
4-1 @ 2.16% (0.096 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.078 0.08)
4-2 @ 1.44% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 45.54%
1-1 @ 11.03% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.023 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.94% (-0.129 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.53% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.89%
1-2 @ 7.35% (-0.111 -0.11)
0-1 @ 6.59% (-0.198 -0.2)
0-2 @ 4.39% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-3 @ 3.27% (-0.062 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.73% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.075 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.09% (-0.025 -0.02)
2-4 @ 0.91% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 30.57%

How you voted: Toronto vs Cincinnati

Toronto
32.1%
Draw
21.4%
FC Cincinnati
46.4%
28
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
Toronto
2-3
Cincinnati
Osorio (39', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84')
Vazquez (28', 35'), Boupendza (72')
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
3-0
Toronto
Arias (35'), Acosta (54'), Badji (63')
Nwobodo (19'), Gaddis (41'), Halsey (82')

Petretta (25'), Bernardeschi (41')
May 5, 2022 12.30am
Cincinnati
2-0
Toronto
Harris (2'), Acosta (57' pen.)
Nwobodo (59'), Blackett (75'), Barreal (88')

Nelson (12')
Priso-Mbongue (6')
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
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Group Stage
Spain
vs.
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Friday, June 21
 
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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Germany Germany00000
2 Hungary Hungary00000
3 Scotland flag Scotland00000
4 Switzerland Switzerland00000

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Albania national flag Albania00000
2 Croatia Croatia00000
3 Italy Italy00000
4 Spain Spain00000

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Denmark Denmark00000
2 England flag England00000
3 Serbia Serbia00000
4 Slovenia Slovenia00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Austria Austria00000
2 France France00000
3 Netherlands Netherlands00000
4 Poland Poland00000

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Belgium Belgium00000
2 Romania Romania00000
3 Slovakia Slovakia00000
4 Ukraine Ukraine00000

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Czech Republic Czech Republic00000
2 Georgia Georgia00000
3 Portugal Portugal00000
4 Turkey Turkey00000


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