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Major League Soccer
May 26, 2024 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
FC Cincinnati

Toronto
3 - 4
Cincinnati

Flores (25'), Murphy (63' og.), Insigne (85' pen.)
Flores (33'), Longstaff (60'), Long (78'), Insigne (90+8')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Orellano (53', 79'), Kelsy (55'), Santos (90+3')
Orellano (60'), Robinson (83'), Kelsy (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Toronto 5-1 Montreal
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 3-1 St Louis City
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Toronto 1-2 FC Cincinnati

The Reds are vastly improved this year, but most of their contributions have come from their Designated Players, while they have not played many solid defensive units in recent games. Cincinnati have the composure needed to handle hostile environments and thrive in close games, and that consistency could propel them to a seventh successive MLS triumph. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
45.54% (0.861 0.86) 23.89% (-0.191 -0.19) 30.57% (-0.667 -0.67)
Both teams to score 59.82% (0.324 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.84% (0.576 0.58)42.16% (-0.575 -0.58)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.43% (0.575 0.57)64.56% (-0.574 -0.57)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.26% (0.593 0.59)18.74% (-0.59 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.88% (0.981 0.98)50.12% (-0.979 -0.98)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.62% (-0.139 -0.14)26.38% (0.14 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.46% (-0.189 -0.19)61.53% (0.189 0.19)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 45.54%
    FC Cincinnati 30.57%
    Draw 23.89%
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.24% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
1-0 @ 8.28% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-0 @ 6.93% (0.081 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.16% (0.135 0.14)
3-0 @ 3.87% (0.116 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.44% (0.076 0.08)
4-1 @ 2.16% (0.096 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.078 0.08)
4-2 @ 1.44% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 45.54%
1-1 @ 11.03% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.023 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.94% (-0.129 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.53% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.89%
1-2 @ 7.35% (-0.111 -0.11)
0-1 @ 6.59% (-0.198 -0.2)
0-2 @ 4.39% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-3 @ 3.27% (-0.062 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.73% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.075 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.09% (-0.025 -0.02)
2-4 @ 0.91% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 30.57%

How you voted: Toronto vs Cincinnati

Toronto
32.1%
Draw
21.4%
FC Cincinnati
46.4%
28
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
Toronto
2-3
Cincinnati
Osorio (39', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84')
Vazquez (28', 35'), Boupendza (72')
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
3-0
Toronto
Arias (35'), Acosta (54'), Badji (63')
Nwobodo (19'), Gaddis (41'), Halsey (82')

Petretta (25'), Bernardeschi (41')
May 5, 2022 12.30am
Cincinnati
2-0
Toronto
Harris (2'), Acosta (57' pen.)
Nwobodo (59'), Blackett (75'), Barreal (88')

Nelson (12')
Priso-Mbongue (6')
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami5410115613
2Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia6402138512
3Columbus Crew633084412
4Chicago Fire63211310311
5Charlotte FCCharlotte FC6312106410
6Nashville SCNashville631295410
7Orlando City63121512310
8FC CincinnatiCincinnati631289-110
9New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls62227618
10New York City FCNY City62229908
11Atlanta UnitedAtlanta62221011-18
12DC United6132811-36
13New England RevolutionNew England511336-34
14Toronto6024612-62
15CF MontrealMontreal6024310-72

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver6411105513
2Austin FCAustin640253212
3Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd632196311
4Colorado RapidsColorado632187111
5Portland TimbersPortland631298110
6Dallas631299010
7Los Angeles FCLos Angeles630389-19
8St Louis City62224228
9San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes62139907
10Seattle SoundersSeattle61328806
11Real Salt LakeSalt Lake6204511-66
12Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy6024512-72
13Houston DynamoHouston6024411-72
14Sporting Kansas CityKansas6015612-61
15San Diego FC00000000


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