Fresh off recording a stunning 11th consecutive victory to end Iga Swiatek's bid for a third Indian Wells crown in Friday's semi-final, Mirra Andreeva battles top seed and 18-time WTA champion Aryna Sabalenka in Sunday's final.
The Belarusian walloped Madison Keys in their first match-up since a heartbreaking defeat by the American at the Australian Open, but the No. 1 player must get the better of a fearless teenager in the title match to notch a first crown in California and right the wrongs of 2023's disappointment against Elena Rybakina.
Match preview
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Is there anything Andreeva cannot do? The Russian teenager is riding high after claiming a first WTA 1000 title in Dubai and following up that success with a maiden run to the title match at the BNP Paribas Open.
The 17-year-old defeated Rybakina, an eight-time WTA champion, and Elina Svitolina, a 17-time titlist, in previous rounds before facing defending champion Swiatek in Friday's semi-final.
Having ousted the 22-time WTA champion in Dubai, the Polish superstar was backed to get her revenge in the Californian desert, where she had been beaten only twice — falling to bete noire Jelena Ostapenko in the last 16 in 2021 and the title match against Rybakina two years ago.
Undaunted by the challenge of facing a player on a 10-match winning streak at the event and seeking a third crown, Andreeva produced sensational tennis to record consecutive wins over the world No. 2 and advance to back-to-back title matches at 1000-level tournaments.
Not only did the teenager hold her nerve in the first-set tie-break, but she also responded to the setback of losing the second set before staving off a dreaded Swiatek resurgence in the third to seal a 7-6(1) 1-6 6-3 triumph.
By recording back-to-back wins over the five-time Grand Slam champion and 10-time victor at 1000-level events, Andreeva becomes the first player since 2001 (Kim Clijsters) to be involved in a final at Indian Wells before turning 18 and fifth since the tournament's 1989 inception, emulating Monica Seles (1991), Martina Hingis (1998), Serena Williams (1999) and Clijsters.
Now, the precociously talented 17-year-old bids for more success against a woman on a mission to put 2023's championship match behind her.
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Sabalenka fell to Rybakina two years ago, edged out in a tight first-set shootout (13-11) and the second in the eventual 7-6 6-4 loss that lasted just over two hours.
The world No. 1 could not progress to consecutive finals last year after falling in the fourth round against Emma Navarro, but she is back in the title match at Tennis Paradise, keen to secure her 19th WTA title and eighth in 1000-level events.
Having put an underwhelming Middle East swing behind her — Sabalenka exited in round two in Doha and the third round in Dubai — the top seed has seemingly put a deflating Australian Open loss to Keys behind her to record a 20th victory over a top-five player since 2018.
Not one to hide her emotions, the Belarusian has hitherto admitted that Keys ending her three-peat dream Down Under was a whack she had struggled to deal with; however, the 18-time champion on the women's tour blew the Aussie Open champion to smithereens in Friday's rematch in California.
Just happy to avoid a double bagel, the United States player satirically lifted her arms after holding serve for the first time down 5-0 in the second set before ultimately falling 6-0 6-1 to the seven-time WTA 1000 champion, who did not even need to play her best tennis to beat the Melbourne champion.
Fresh off ending Keys's 16-match winning sequence and a bid for three titles in a row to follow victories in Adelaide and the first Grand Slam of 2025, Sabalenka, the fourth women's player to reach the title matches in Australia and Indian Wells in multiple seasons (2023, 2025), emulating Seles (1991-92), Hingis (1998, 2000, 2002) and Lindsay Davenport (2000, 2005) aims to claim a maiden crown in the desert.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: Bye
Second round: McCartney Kessler 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: vs. Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Sonay Kartal 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Madison Keys 6-0 6-1
Mirra Andreeva:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-4
Third round: vs. Clara Tauson 6-3 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Elina Svitolina 7-5 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 7-6[1] 1-6 6-3
Head To Head
Australian Open (2025) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-1 6-2
Brisbane (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-2
Roland Garros (2024) - Quarter-finals: Andreeva 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4
Madrid (2024) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4
Madrid (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-3 6-1
Sabalenka holds a 4-1 lead over Andreeva in their head-to-head, including a pair of straight-set victories in 2025 in Brisbane and the Aussie Open.
Interestingly, the top seed's four triumphs over the Russian sensation have been two-set successes, with the 18-time champion dropping 17 games in those meetings.
The teenager's only victory came on the clay courts of Roland Garros at last year's French Open, to record her third success over a top-10 opponent.
The 17-year-old has since added five more victories over the elite players, and she enters Sunday's title match on a four-match winning sequence against such opponents — beating Swiatek and Rybakina in Dubai and Indian Wells.
While Andreeva is 2-1 in title matches, Sabalenka's experience is showcased by her 18-15 record in such contests.
The Belarusian hopes to return to winning ways in championship matches, having claimed four on the trot before falling to Keys Down Under.
We say: Andreeva to win in three sets
Andreeva is currently in the business of claiming huge scalps on the women's tour, undaunted by the level of opponent and unminding their titles won.
Although Sabalenka has dominated their rivalry, she has not faced this version of the teenager, whose 11-match winning streak is the longest of her embryonic career.
Sunday's outcome will be contingent on the Belarusian's rally tolerance against the ninth seed, who typically makes her opponents play one extra shot.
Notwithstanding, we are backing the precocious talent to stun Sabalenka in the title match and record consecutive WTA 1000 triumphs.
