Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 70.07%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 11.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Flamengo in this match.