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Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Nov 4, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Bayern logo

Dortmund
0 - 4
Bayern


Hummels (61'), Ryerson (74'), Sabitzer (76')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Upamecano (4'), Kane (9', 72', 90+3')
Sane (22'), Tuchel (42'), Laimer (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 Hoffenheim
Wednesday, November 1 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Saarbrucken 2-1 Bayern
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich

 At least four goals have been scored in each of the last eight meetings between Dortmund and Bayern, and another entertaining end-to-end contest could be on the cards on Saturday. Dortmund will look to take advantage of Bayern's midweek wobble, but we believe that the perennial Bundesliga champions will bounce back to claim all three points, especially is Kane continues his fine form in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.47%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawBayern Munich
35.2% (1.026 1.03) 22.87% (0.483 0.48) 41.93% (-1.512 -1.51)
Both teams to score 65.46% (-1.578 -1.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.46% (-2.173 -2.17)35.54% (2.169 2.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.41% (-2.445 -2.45)57.59% (2.442 2.44)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.4% (-0.48399999999999 -0.48)20.6% (0.481 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.85% (-0.769 -0.77)53.14% (0.76600000000001 0.77)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.45% (-1.478 -1.48)17.55% (1.474 1.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.91% (-2.633 -2.63)48.08% (2.628 2.63)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 35.2%
    Bayern Munich 41.93%
    Draw 22.87%
Borussia DortmundDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 7.85% (0.251 0.25)
1-0 @ 5.71% (0.526 0.53)
2-0 @ 4.51% (0.353 0.35)
3-1 @ 4.14% (0.073 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.6% (-0.115 -0.12)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.154 0.15)
4-1 @ 1.63% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (-0.068 -0.07)
4-0 @ 0.94% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 35.2%
1-1 @ 9.94% (0.459 0.46)
2-2 @ 6.83% (-0.115 -0.11)
0-0 @ 3.62% (0.381 0.38)
3-3 @ 2.09% (-0.175 -0.18)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 22.87%
1-2 @ 8.65% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-1 @ 6.29% (0.379 0.38)
0-2 @ 5.47% (0.071 0.07)
1-3 @ 5.02% (-0.263 -0.26)
2-3 @ 3.96% (-0.27 -0.27)
0-3 @ 3.18% (-0.117 -0.12)
1-4 @ 2.18% (-0.23 -0.23)
2-4 @ 1.72% (-0.21 -0.21)
0-4 @ 1.38% (-0.123 -0.12)
3-4 @ 0.91% (-0.126 -0.13)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 41.93%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Bayern

Borussia Dortmund
19.1%
Draw
7.4%
Bayern Munich
73.4%
94
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 26
Bayern
4-2
Dortmund
Kobel (13' og.), Muller (18', 23'), Coman (50')
Can (72' pen.), Malen (90')
> Match Report
Oct 8, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 9
Dortmund
2-2
Bayern
Moukoko (74'), Modeste (90+5')
Goretzka (33'), Sane (53')
> Preview
Apr 23, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 31
Bayern
3-1
Dortmund
Gnabry (15'), Lewandowski (34'), Musiala (83')
Nagelsmann (87')
Can (52' pen.)
Can (40'), Rose (41')
> Preview
Dec 4, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 14
Dortmund
2-3
Bayern
Brandt (5'), Braut Haaland (48')
Can (51'), Rose (55'), Rose (78'), Bellingham (86')
Lewandowski (9', 77'), Coman (44')
Lewandowski (88'), Upamecano (90+5')
> Preview
Aug 17, 2021 7.30pm
Final
Dortmund
1-3
Bayern
Reus (64')
Reus (25'), Dahoud (32')
Lewandowski (41', 74'), Muller (50')
Sule (23'), Sane (83'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (90+3')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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