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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Dec 9, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
2 - 3
RB Leipzig

Sule (45+6'), Fullkrug (90+3')
Ozcan (60')
Hummels (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bensebaini (32' og.), Baumgartner (54'), Poulsen (90+1')
Simakan (35'), Simons (61'), Openda (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 2-0 Dortmund
Wednesday, December 6 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-4 RB Leipzig

 Goals are to be expected in this highly-anticipated contest as the net has rippled at least three times in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. Leipzig have had plenty of joy over Dortmund in the last few years and we feel that Rose's men, refreshed after a week off, have the firepower to cause problems in the final third once again when they face a depleted and deflated BVB outfit who have been conceding goals for fun of late. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.57%) and 3-1 (5.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
44.5% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09) 21.98% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 33.51% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Both teams to score 68.38% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.47% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)31.53% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.99% (-0.064 -0.06)53.01% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.04% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)14.96% (0.051 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.62% (-0.1 -0.1)43.37% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.41% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)19.59% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.48% (0.016999999999996 0.02)51.52% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 44.5%
    RB Leipzig 33.51%
    Draw 21.98%
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.62% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 5.57% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.29% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-2 @ 4.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.35% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.59% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.11% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.59% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-3 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 0.99% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 44.5%
1-1 @ 9.07% (0.012 0.01)
2-2 @ 7.03% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 2.93% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 2.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 21.98%
1-2 @ 7.4% (0.013 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.78% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.02% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.89% (0.014 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.82% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.12% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.64% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 1.56% (0.002 0)
3-4 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 33.51%

How you voted: Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund
44.2%
Draw
20.9%
RB Leipzig
34.9%
86
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals
RB Leipzig
2-0
Dortmund
Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
> Preview
Mar 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Dortmund
2-1
RB Leipzig
Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')
Forsberg (74')
> Match Report
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
3-0
Dortmund
Orban (6'), Szoboszlai (45'), Haidara (84')
> Preview
Apr 2, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 28
Dortmund
1-4
RB Leipzig
Malen (84')
Hazard (45'), Can (80'), Malen (88')
Laimer (21', 30'), Nkunku (58'), Olmo (86')
Kampl (54')
> Preview
Nov 6, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 11
RB Leipzig
2-1
Dortmund
Nkunku (29'), Poulsen (68')
Adams (40'), Poulsen (65'), Szoboszlai (88')
Reus (52')
Bellingham (31'), Reus (31'), Witsel (38'), Meunier (55'), Moukoko (89')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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