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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.81%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.14%) and 1-3 (6.74%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
23.46% ( 0.2) | 20.72% ( -0.02) | 55.81% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 64.78% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.15% ( 0.33) | 32.84% ( -0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.45% ( 0.38) | 54.54% ( -0.38) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.51% ( 0.34) | 26.49% ( -0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.32% ( 0.45) | 61.68% ( -0.45) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.12% ( 0.05) | 11.87% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.82% ( 0.12) | 37.17% ( -0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 2.78% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.03% Total : 23.46% | 1-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.39% Total : 20.72% | 1-2 @ 9.49% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 6.74% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 4.48% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 3.59% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.7% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.38% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) 2-5 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
7 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
8 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
10 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 14 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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