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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 56.55%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Heidenheim had a probability of 21.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.77%) and 2-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Heidenheim win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Heidenheim |
56.55% ( -0.09) | 22.29% ( 0.04) | 21.15% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 55.82% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.86% ( -0.15) | 43.14% ( 0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.46% ( -0.14) | 65.54% ( 0.14) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.93% ( -0.08) | 15.07% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.41% ( -0.15) | 43.58% ( 0.14) |
Heidenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.72% ( -0.04) | 34.27% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.02% ( -0.05) | 70.97% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Heidenheim |
2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.73% Total : 56.55% | 1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.28% | 1-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2% 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 21.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 14 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
4 | Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
5 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
6 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
7 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
8 | Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 9 |
9 | Heidenheim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Mainz 05Mainz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 8 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 7 |
13 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
15 | St Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 2 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 |
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