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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.92%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
43.84% ( -0.37) | 23.13% ( -0.08) | 33.03% ( 0.45) |
Both teams to score 63.77% ( 0.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.52% ( 0.55) | 37.48% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.3% ( 0.59) | 59.7% ( -0.59) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.44% ( 0.08) | 17.56% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.9% ( 0.13) | 48.1% ( -0.13) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.35% ( 0.51) | 22.65% ( -0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.72% ( 0.76) | 56.28% ( -0.76) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.49% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) Other @ 4% Total : 43.84% | 1-1 @ 10.27% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.91% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.25% Total : 33.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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