Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 19, 2023 at 2pm UK

Serbia
2 - 2
Bulgaria

Veljkovic (16'), Babic (82')
Lukic (51')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rusev (59'), Despodov (69')
Petkov (3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Serbia and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Serbia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Belgium 1-0 Serbia
Wednesday, November 15 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	7	7	15
2	Serbia	7	6	13
3	Montenegro	7	0	11
4	Lithuania	8	-6	6
5	Bulgaria	7	-7	3

Bulgaria

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Bulgaria 2-2 Hungary
Thursday, November 16 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	7	7	15
2	Serbia	7	6	13
3	Montenegro	7	0	11
4	Lithuania	8	-6	6
5	Bulgaria	7	-7	3

There is a significant gulf in class between these two teams, albeit Serbia needed a last-gasp leveller to avoid defeat in Bulgaria. Set to confirm their trip to Germany in style, the home side should certainly score more than once in Leskovac, given the depth of attacking talent available to them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 20.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 1-2 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Serbia	Draw	Bulgaria
57.13% ( -0.21)	21.94% ( -0)	20.93% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 56.66% (

0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.13% (

0.3)

41.87% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.73% (

0.3)

64.27% (

-0.3)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.55% (

0.04)

14.45% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.6% (

0.07)

42.4% (

-0.06)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.24% (

0.38)

33.77% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.57% (

0.41)

70.43% (

-0.4)

Score Analysis

Serbia 57.13%

Bulgaria 20.93%

Draw 21.94%

Serbia	Draw	Bulgaria
2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.99% Total : 57.13%	1-1 @ 10.24% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.18% Total : 21.94%	1-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.19% Total : 20.93%