FA Cup

FA Cup | Fifth Round

Mar 1, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Turf Moor

Burnley
1 - 0
Fleetwood

Roberts (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Andrew (22'), Rooney (54'), Vela (90+6')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's FA Cup clash between Burnley and Fleetwood Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Burnley 4-0 Huddersfield
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fleetwood Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Fleetwood 1-0 Morecambe
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Burnley 3-0 Fleetwood Town

With more changes expected from Burnley than Fleetwood, the outsiders have reason to believe that they can pull off what would be a considerable upset. However, such is the confidence within the Clarets camp that they will expect to beat most opposition in front of them, leading us to predict a dominant win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 72.86%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 9.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.16%) and 3-0 (10.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (3.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Fleetwood Town
72.86% ( 0.99)	17.37% ( -0.67)	9.77% ( -0.31)

Both teams to score 43.92% (

0.99)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.63% (

2.02)

44.37% (

-2.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.26% (

1.94)

66.74% (

-1.93)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.27% (

0.82)

10.72% (

-0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.33% (

1.8)

34.67% (

-1.8)

Fleetwood Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.2% (

0.67)

50.8% (

-0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.79% (

0.45)

85.21% (

-0.45)

Score Analysis

Burnley 72.84%

Fleetwood Town 9.77%

Draw 17.37%

Burnley	Draw	Fleetwood Town
2-0 @ 13.57% ( -0.27) 1-0 @ 12.16% ( -0.66) 3-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.23) 4-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.26) 4-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.25) 5-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 1.71% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.11) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.73% Total : 72.84%	1-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.58% Total : 17.37%	0-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.04% Total : 9.77%