League One

League One | Gameweek 30

Feb 4, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
5 - 0
Morecambe

McGoldrick (45', 47', 50' pen.), Collins (66' pen.), Knight (69')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gibson (25'), Simeu (44'), Austerfield (87'), Love (90+5')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 0-2 West Ham
Monday, January 30 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Morecambe

All competitions

Last Game: Morecambe 5-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 2-1 Morecambe

Given their recent results, Morecambe will certainly travel with plenty of confidence, and they do have the quality to pull off a result, but we anticipate Warne's men being slightly too strong, and with plenty of momentum of their own, the Rams should take all three points on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 75.69%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 8.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.47%) and 3-0 (10.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Morecambe
75.69% ( 0.74)	15.85% ( -0.57)	8.45% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 43.61% (

1.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.32% (

1.99)

41.68% (

-1.99)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.92% (

1.98)

64.08% (

-1.98)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.68% (

0.69)

9.32% (

-0.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.56% (

1.61)

31.43% (

-1.6)

Morecambe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.09% (

0.9)

51.91% (

-0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.05% (

0.58)

85.94% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Derby County 75.68%

Morecambe 8.45%

Draw 15.85%

Derby County	Draw	Morecambe
2-0 @ 13.62% ( -0.38) 1-0 @ 11.47% ( -0.69) 3-0 @ 10.77% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.21) 4-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.24) 5-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.11) 6-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.32% Total : 75.68%	1-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.45) 2-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.56% Total : 15.85%	0-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.77% Total : 8.45%