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League One | Gameweek 30
Feb 4, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Morecambe

Derby
5 - 0
Morecambe

McGoldrick (45', 47', 50' pen.), Collins (66' pen.), Knight (69')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Gibson (25'), Simeu (44'), Austerfield (87'), Love (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-2 West Ham
Monday, January 30 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Morecambe

All competitions
Last Game: Morecambe 5-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Morecambe

 Given their recent results, Morecambe will certainly travel with plenty of confidence, and they do have the quality to pull off a result, but we anticipate Warne's men being slightly too strong, and with plenty of momentum of their own, the Rams should take all three points on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 75.69%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 8.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.47%) and 3-0 (10.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawMorecambe
75.69% (0.74499999999999 0.74) 15.85% (-0.565 -0.57) 8.45% (-0.179 -0.18)
Both teams to score 43.61% (1.143 1.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.32% (1.989 1.99)41.68% (-1.989 -1.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.92% (1.979 1.98)64.08% (-1.977 -1.98)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.68% (0.68900000000001 0.69)9.32% (-0.6861 -0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.56% (1.605 1.61)31.43% (-1.604 -1.6)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
48.09% (0.903 0.9)51.91% (-0.901 -0.9)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.05% (0.583 0.58)85.94% (-0.583 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 75.68%
    Morecambe 8.45%
    Draw 15.85%
Derby CountyDrawMorecambe
2-0 @ 13.62% (-0.38 -0.38)
1-0 @ 11.47% (-0.69 -0.69)
3-0 @ 10.77% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.93% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.07% (0.205 0.21)
4-0 @ 6.39% (0.209 0.21)
4-1 @ 4.19% (0.244 0.24)
5-0 @ 3.03% (0.187 0.19)
3-2 @ 2.32% (0.127 0.13)
5-1 @ 1.99% (0.171 0.17)
4-2 @ 1.37% (0.114 0.11)
6-0 @ 1.2% (0.108 0.11)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 75.68%
1-1 @ 7.53% (-0.238 -0.24)
0-0 @ 4.84% (-0.447 -0.45)
2-2 @ 2.93% (0.075 0.07)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 15.85%
0-1 @ 3.17% (-0.202 -0.2)
1-2 @ 2.47% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.04% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 8.45%

How you voted: Derby vs Morecambe

Derby County
79.3%
Draw
10.3%
Morecambe
10.3%
29
Head to Head
Nov 1, 2022 7.45pm
Morecambe
1-1
Derby
Weir (45+2')
Sibley (59')
McGoldrick (41')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe15112235181735
2Wrexham1694325111431
3Stockport CountyStockport1786329171230
4Birmingham CityBirmingham1493226151130
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield158252315826
6Barnsley167542420426
7Lincoln CityLincoln167542320326
8Reading158252422226
9Bolton WanderersBolton158252425-126
10Mansfield TownMansfield147342016424
11Exeter CityExeter157261413123
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough166373229321
13Bristol Rovers166371721-421
14Charlton AthleticCharlton155461617-119
15Stevenage165471116-519
16Northampton TownNorthampton164661821-318
17Wigan AthleticWigan154561312117
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham164571419-517
19Blackpool164572230-817
20Crawley TownCrawley174491527-1216
21Leyton Orient154381418-415
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge153391324-1112
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1632111629-1311
24Burton Albion151591528-138
> League One Full Table


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