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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
Result | ||
Reading | Draw | Burton Albion |
47.14% ( -3.87) | 24.63% ( 0.45) | 28.23% ( 3.42) |
Both teams to score 55.76% ( 1.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.17% ( 0.62) | 46.83% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.92% ( 0.58) | 69.08% ( -0.57) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.06% ( -1.33) | 19.94% ( 1.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.91% ( -2.18) | 52.09% ( 2.19) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.65% ( 3.02) | 30.35% ( -3.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.46% ( 3.45) | 66.54% ( -3.45) |
Score Analysis |
Reading | Draw | Burton Albion |
1-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.68) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.91) 3-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.69) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.24) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.36) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.91% Total : 47.14% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.31) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.63% | 0-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.65) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.56) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.46) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.29) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.34) Other @ 3.09% Total : 28.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 63 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 59 |
3 | Wrexham | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 55 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 50 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 48 |
6 | Leyton Orient | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 44 |
7 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 44 |
8 | Reading | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 44 |
9 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 44 |
10 | Barnsley | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 43 |
11 | Stevenage | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 40 |
12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 39 |
13 | Blackpool | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 38 |
14 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 37 |
15 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 37 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 34 |
17 | Exeter CityExeter | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 32 |
18 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 30 |
19 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 30 |
20 | Bristol Rovers | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
21 | Burton Albion | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 25 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 24 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 23 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 22 |
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