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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 47.1%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.
Result | ||
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
29.03% ( 0.13) | 23.87% ( 0.01) | 47.1% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 58.9% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.04% ( 0.02) | 42.96% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.64% ( 0.02) | 65.36% ( -0.01) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.2% ( 0.09) | 27.81% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.61% ( 0.12) | 63.4% ( -0.12) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.58% ( -0.05) | 18.42% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.42% ( -0.08) | 49.59% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
2-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.83% Total : 29.03% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.12% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.87% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.29% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.39% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0) Other @ 3.5% Total : 47.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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