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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 37.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.28%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.42% ( 1.23) | 24.07% ( -0.08) | 38.5% ( -1.15) |
Both teams to score 61.19% ( 0.41) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.78% ( 0.5) | 41.22% ( -0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.38% ( 0.51) | 63.61% ( -0.51) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.96% ( 0.86) | 22.04% ( -0.86) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.63% ( 1.29) | 55.37% ( -1.29) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.49% ( -0.34) | 21.5% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.45% ( -0.52) | 54.55% ( 0.52) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.51% Total : 37.42% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.07% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.24) 0-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.16) 1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |