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Championship header 2

League Two
Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 26
Jan 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Swindon Town

Crawley
3 - 1
Swindon

Orsi (9', 53'), Roles (26')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kemp (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 2-0 Crawley
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

Swindon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Swindon 2-1 Forest Green
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Swindon Town

 Clashes like this are often tight and intense, with both teams desperate not to lose ground as they are level on points. However, the recent trend in this fixture favours whichever team is at home and we think this trend will continue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
39.36% (0.31 0.31) 22.54% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1) 38.1% (-0.218 -0.22)
Both teams to score 67.19% (0.375 0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.54% (0.48599999999999 0.49)33.46% (-0.491 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.74% (0.553 0.55)55.25% (-0.559 -0.56)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (0.34 0.34)17.75% (-0.345 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (0.588 0.59)48.44% (-0.594 -0.59)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.69% (0.114 0.11)18.3% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.61% (0.196 0.2)49.38% (-0.201 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 39.36%
    Swindon Town 38.1%
    Draw 22.54%
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
2-1 @ 8.24% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 5.62% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
2-0 @ 4.85% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.75% (0.055 0.05)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.061 0.06)
3-0 @ 2.8% (0.022 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.046 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.74% (0.046 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.023 0.02)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 39.36%
1-1 @ 9.54% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-2 @ 7% (0.03 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.25% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-3 @ 2.28% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 0.47%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 8.1% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
0-1 @ 5.52% (-0.122 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.085 -0.09)
1-3 @ 4.58% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.96% (0.032 0.03)
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.95% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.68% (0.02 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.97% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 38.1%

How you voted: Crawley vs Swindon

Crawley Town
42.9%
Draw
14.3%
Swindon Town
42.9%
7
Head to Head
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 5
Swindon
6-0
Crawley
Kemp (34'), Young (47', 51', 60', 71'), Shade (90+9')

Williams (88')
May 8, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Swindon
2-1
Crawley
Austin (41'), Cain (43')
Telford (62' pen.)
> Preview
Dec 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 20
Crawley
2-0
Swindon
Tsaroulla (79'), Powell (83')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 38
Crawley
3-1
Swindon
Appiah (29'), Nichols (72'), Hutchinson (90+1')
Francillette (59'), Marshall (84')
Davison (50')
Williams (56'), Odimayo (65')
Feb 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Swindon
1-1
Crawley
Gladwin (90+2')
Lyden (81'), McKirdy (83')
Powell (41' pen.)
Nichols (54'), Tsaroulla (65'), Powell (77')
> Preview
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Gillingham86111221019
2Walsall86021541118
3BarrowBarrow8512115616
4Notts County8431158715
5Port Vale84221311214
6AFC Wimbledon641194513
7Doncaster RoversDoncaster84131112-113
8Crewe AlexandraCrewe841389-113
9Chesterfield8332136712
10Fleetwood TownFleetwood7331107312
11Grimsby Town84041214-212
12Newport CountyNewport84041216-412
13Bradford CityBradford8323109111
14Harrogate TownHarrogate8314811-310
15Colchester UnitedColchester82331214-29
16Salford City723246-29
17Tranmere RoversTranmere723237-49
18Bromley82241012-28
19MK Dons8224710-38
20Cheltenham TownCheltenham8215913-47
21Swindon TownSwindon8134812-46
22Carlisle UnitedCarlisle82061017-76
23Morecambe8035611-53
24Accrington StanleyAccrington7034816-83
> League Two Full Table


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