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Championship header 2

League Two
Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 26
Jan 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Swindon Town

Crawley
3 - 1
Swindon

Orsi (9', 53'), Roles (26')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kemp (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 2-0 Crawley
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

Swindon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Swindon 2-1 Forest Green
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Swindon Town

 Clashes like this are often tight and intense, with both teams desperate not to lose ground as they are level on points. However, the recent trend in this fixture favours whichever team is at home and we think this trend will continue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
39.36% (0.31 0.31) 22.54% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1) 38.1% (-0.218 -0.22)
Both teams to score 67.19% (0.375 0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.54% (0.48599999999999 0.49)33.46% (-0.491 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.74% (0.553 0.55)55.25% (-0.559 -0.56)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (0.34 0.34)17.75% (-0.345 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (0.588 0.59)48.44% (-0.594 -0.59)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.69% (0.114 0.11)18.3% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.61% (0.196 0.2)49.38% (-0.201 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 39.36%
    Swindon Town 38.1%
    Draw 22.54%
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
2-1 @ 8.24% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 5.62% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
2-0 @ 4.85% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.75% (0.055 0.05)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.061 0.06)
3-0 @ 2.8% (0.022 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.046 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.74% (0.046 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.023 0.02)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 39.36%
1-1 @ 9.54% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-2 @ 7% (0.03 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.25% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-3 @ 2.28% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 0.47%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 8.1% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
0-1 @ 5.52% (-0.122 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.085 -0.09)
1-3 @ 4.58% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.96% (0.032 0.03)
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.95% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.68% (0.02 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.97% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 38.1%

How you voted: Crawley vs Swindon

Crawley Town
42.9%
Draw
14.3%
Swindon Town
42.9%
7
Head to Head
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 5
Swindon
6-0
Crawley
Kemp (34'), Young (47', 51', 60', 71'), Shade (90+9')

Williams (88')
May 8, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Swindon
2-1
Crawley
Austin (41'), Cain (43')
Telford (62' pen.)
> Preview
Dec 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 20
Crawley
2-0
Swindon
Tsaroulla (79'), Powell (83')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 38
Crawley
3-1
Swindon
Appiah (29'), Nichols (72'), Hutchinson (90+1')
Francillette (59'), Marshall (84')
Davison (50')
Williams (56'), Odimayo (65')
Feb 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Swindon
1-1
Crawley
Gladwin (90+2')
Lyden (81'), McKirdy (83')
Powell (41' pen.)
Nichols (54'), Tsaroulla (65'), Powell (77')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale149322315830
2Walsall1382326141226
3Notts County1475222121026
4Doncaster RoversDoncaster148242016426
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe137331612424
6Chesterfield1457228151322
7Bradford CityBradford146442015522
8MK Dons146352116521
9BarrowBarrow146351511421
10Grimsby Town147071825-721
11Gillingham146261512320
12Salford City145541416-220
13AFC Wimbledon11614189919
14Newport CountyNewport146171824-619
15Fleetwood TownFleetwood134631915418
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham145271821-317
17Harrogate TownHarrogate144371119-815
18Bromley133551517-214
19Tranmere RoversTranmere13355816-814
20Accrington StanleyAccrington133461522-713
21Colchester UnitedColchester132651620-412
22Swindon TownSwindon142661520-512
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1422101228-168
24Morecambe141491225-137
> League Two Full Table


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