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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 37.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (5.34%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 1-2 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Wrexham |
38.96% ( 0.31) | 23.46% ( 0.02) | 37.57% ( -0.35) |
Both teams to score 63.56% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.84% ( -0.15) | 38.15% ( 0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.57% ( -0.16) | 60.42% ( 0.15) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.05% ( 0.08) | 19.94% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.9% ( 0.13) | 52.09% ( -0.14) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.39% ( -0.24) | 20.6% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.85% ( -0.37) | 53.14% ( 0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Wrexham |
2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.87% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.15% Total : 38.96% | 1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.45% | 1-2 @ 8.27% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.96% Total : 37.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Gillingham | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
2 | Walsall | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
3 | BarrowBarrow | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
4 | Notts County | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
5 | Port Vale | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
7 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
8 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
9 | Chesterfield | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
10 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
11 | Grimsby Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
12 | Newport CountyNewport | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11 |
14 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
16 | Salford City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
18 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
19 | MK Dons | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
20 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
22 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
23 | Morecambe | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
24 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
> League Two Full Table |